The following data are monthly sales of jeans at a local department store. The buyer would like to forecast sales of jeans for the next month, July.

Month Sales Naive Forecast 2-period moving average exponential Smoonting

January 38

February 34

March 40

April 35

May 44

June 45

a) Forecast sales of jeans for March through June using the naive method, a two-period

moving average, and exponential smoothing with an = 0.2. (Hint: Use naive to start the

exponential smoothing process.)

b) Compare the forecasts using MAD and decide which is best.

c) Using your method of choice, make a forecast for the month of July.