Question
The following data report total, monthly U.S. book-store sales in millions of dollars from January 2016 to March 2019. (Go to https://www.census.gov/retail/index.html#mrts, find Monthly Retail
The following data report total, monthly U.S. book-store sales in millions of dollars from January 2016 to March 2019. (Go to https://www.census.gov/retail/index.html#mrts, find "Monthly Retail Trade Report," then select "Time Series/Trend Charts" to find the data for the total U.S. bookstore sales.)
| Month | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 |
| January | 1508 | 1426 | 1311 | 1184 |
| February | 767 | 731 | 749 | 706 |
| March | 759 | 747 | 774 | 725 |
| April | 749 | 769 | 750 | |
| May | 818 | 821 | 826 | |
| June | 753 | 744 | 767 | |
| July | 727 | 709 | 741 | |
| August | 1564 | 1414 | 1404 | |
| September | 1104 | 1037 | 1026 | |
| October | 755 | 729 | 781 | |
| November | 782 | 743 | 808 | |
| December | 1296 | 1197 | 1299 |
d.Evaluate a seasonally adjusted trend forecasting model. What is the MAD?(Round your answers to 4 decimal places.)
| month number | $ sales (millions) | period | trend | index | forecast | absolute error |
| 1 | 1,508 | 1 | ? | ? | ? | ? |
| 2 | 767 | 2 | ? | ? | ? | ? |
| 3 | 759 | 3 | ? | ? | ? | ? |
| 4 | 749 | 4 | ? | ? | ? | ? |
| 5 | 818 | 5 | ? | ? | ? | ? |
| 6 | 753 | 6 | ? | ? | ? | ? |
| 7 | 727 | 7 | ? | ? | ? | ? |
| 8 | 1,564 | 8 | ? | ? | ? | ? |
| 9 | 1,104 | 9 | ? | ? | ? | ? |
| 10 | 755 | 10 | ? | ? | ? | ? |
| 11 | 782 | 11 | ? | ? | ? | ? |
| 12 | 1,296 | 12 | ? | ? | ? | ? |
| 1 | 1,426 | 13 | ? | ? | ? | ? |
| 2 | 731 | 14 | ? | ? | ? | ? |
| 3 | 747 | 15 | ? | ? | ? | ? |
| 4 | 769 | 16 | ? | ? | ? | ? |
| 5 | 821 | 17 | ? | ? | ? | ? |
| 6 | 744 | 18 | ? | ? | ? | ? |
| 7 | 709 | 19 | ? | ? | ? | ? |
| 8 | 1,414 | 20 | ? | ? | ? | ? |
| 9 | 1,037 | 21 | ? | ? | ? | ? |
| 10 | 729 | 22 | ? | ? | ? | ? |
| 11 | 743 | 23 | ? | ? | ? | ? |
| 12 | 1,197 | 24 | ? | ? | ? | ? |
| 1 | 1,311 | 25 | ? | ? | ? | ? |
| 2 | 749 | 26 | ? | ? | ? | ? |
| 3 | 774 | 27 | ? | ? | ? | ? |
| 4 | 750 | 28 | ? | ? | ? | ? |
| 5 | 827 | 29 | ? | ? | ? | ? |
| 6 | 767 | 30 | ? | ? | ? | ? |
| 7 | 741 | 31 | ? | ? | ? | ? |
| 8 | 1,404 | 32 | ? | ? | ? | ? |
| 9 | 1,026 | 33 | ? | ? | ? | ? |
| 10 | 781 | 34 | ? | ? | ? | ? |
| 11 | 808 | 35 | ? | ? | ? | ? |
| 12 | 1,299 | 36 | ? | ? | ? | ? |
| 1 | 1,184 | 37 | ? | ? | ? | ? |
| 2 | 706 | 38 | ? | ? | ? | ? |
| 3 | 725 | 39 | ? | ? | ? | ? |
MD = ?
e.What is the average monthly trend in book-store sales?(Negative amounts should be indicated by a minus sign. Round your answer to 4 decimal places.)
Average monthly trend in book-store sales ? million dollars per month.
f.What are the monthly indexes?(Round your answers to 4 decimal places.)
| month | index |
| 1 | ? |
| 2 | ? |
| 3 | ? |
| 4 | ? |
| 5 | ? |
| 6 | ? |
| 7 | ? |
| 8 | ? |
| 9 | ? |
| 10 | ? |
| 11 | ? |
| 12 | ? |
g.Predict book sales for the next 9 months.(Round your answers to 4 decimal places.)
| year | month | forecast sales |
| 2019 | apr | ? |
| 2019 | may | ? |
| 2019 | june | ? |
| 2019 | july | ? |
| 2019 | august | ? |
| 2019 | sept | ? |
| 2019 | oct | ? |
| 2019 | nov | ? |
| 2019 | dec | ? |
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Macroeconomics
Authors: N. Gregory Mankiw, William M. Scarth
5th Canadian Edition
978-1464168505
