Question
The following data report total, monthly U.S. gasoline sales in millions of dollars from January 2017 to December 2018. (To find the data, go to
The following data report total, monthly U.S. gasoline sales in millions of dollars from January 2017 to December 2018. (To find the data, go to the site https://www.census.gov/retail/index.html#mrts, find "Monthly Retail Trade Report," then select "Time Series/Trend Charts.")
Year | Month | Sales |
($ millions) | ||
2017 | Jan | 34,730 |
2017 | Feb | 33,072 |
2017 | Mar | 37,722 |
2017 | Apr | 38,073 |
2017 | May | 39,839 |
2017 | Jun | 39,109 |
2017 | Jul | 38,897 |
2017 | Aug | 40,317 |
2017 | Sep | 40,446 |
2017 | Oct | 40,817 |
2017 | Nov | 39,286 |
2017 | Dec | 39,146 |
2018 | Jan | 38,323 |
2018 | Feb | 36,477 |
2018 | Mar | 41,748 |
2018 | Apr | 42,209 |
2018 | May | 47,149 |
2018 | Jun | 46,646 |
2018 | Jul | 47,091 |
2018 | Aug | 47,933 |
2018 | Sep | 44,685 |
2018 | Oct | 47,442 |
2018 | Nov | 42,339 |
2018 | Dec | 38,726 |
d. Evaluate a seasonally adjusted trend forecasting model. What is the MAD? (Round your answers to 3 decimal places.)
Period | Month-Year | Year | Month | Sales ($ millions) | Trend | Index | Forecast | Absolute Error |
1 | Jan-17 | 2017 | 1 | 34,730 | ||||
2 | Feb-17 | 2017 | 2 | 33,072 | ||||
3 | Mar-17 | 2017 | 3 | 37,722 | ||||
4 | Apr-17 | 2017 | 4 | 38,073 | ||||
5 | May-17 | 2017 | 5 | 39,839 | ||||
6 | Jun-17 | 2017 | 6 | 39,109 | ||||
7 | Jul-17 | 2017 | 7 | 38,897 | ||||
8 | Aug-17 | 2017 | 8 | 40,317 | ||||
9 | Sep-17 | 2017 | 9 | 40,446 | ||||
10 | Oct-17 | 2017 | 10 | 40,817 | ||||
11 | Nov-17 | 2017 | 11 | 39,286 | ||||
12 | Dec-17 | 2017 | 12 | 39,146 | ||||
13 | Jan-18 | 2018 | 1 | 38,323 | ||||
14 | Feb-18 | 2018 | 2 | 36,477 | ||||
15 | Mar-18 | 2018 | 3 | 41,748 | ||||
16 | Apr-18 | 2018 | 4 | 42,209 | ||||
17 | May-18 | 2018 | 5 | 47,149 | ||||
18 | Jun-18 | 2018 | 6 | 46,646 | ||||
19 | Jul-18 | 2018 | 7 | 47,091 | ||||
20 | Aug-18 | 2018 | 8 | 47,933 | ||||
21 | Sep-18 | 2018 | 9 | 44,685 | ||||
22 | Oct-18 | 2018 | 10 | 47,442 | ||||
23 | Nov-18 | 2018 | 11 | 42,339 | ||||
24 | Dec-18 | 2018 | 12 | 38,726 | ||||
MAD = |
e. What are the monthly indexes? (Round your answers to 3 decimal places.)
Month | Index |
1 | |
2 | |
3 | |
4 | |
5 | |
6 | |
7 | |
8 | |
9 | |
10 | |
11 | |
12 |
f. Forecast sales for January, February, March, and April of 2019. (Round your answers to 2 decimal places.)
Forecasted Sales | |
Period 25 Sales | ___ million |
Period 26 Sales | ___ million |
Period 27 Sales | ___ million |
Period 28 Sales | ___ million |
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