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[The following information applies to the questions displayed below.] National Auto Insurance Company underwrites automobile coverage for the consumer market. As part of the
[The following information applies to the questions displayed below.] National Auto Insurance Company underwrites automobile coverage for the consumer market. As part of the annual planning process, National Auto requires monthly estimates for the number of policies in force and the amount of premium revenue associated with this volume of business. You have been asked to prepare these estimates for the coming six- month period. Past experience indicates that the number of policies outstanding during a given month is influenced both by macro factors (e.g., market size [total number of households] and market growth rate) and company-specific factors (e.g., market share, cancellation rate experience). At the beginning of January for the new budget year, the number of households is estimated as 100 million; further, past experience indicates that this will increase by approximately 0.05% per month. Your own research indicates that approximately 80% of households have one or more cars. On average, each household owns 2.2 cars. Because of legal requirements, the average percentage of cars insured is high-your best estimate is that this number is 85% and growing by 0.1% per month. Current market share of National Auto in the consumer market is 14,940,000, which is approximately 10%. Over the past 24 months, the rate of increase in market share for National Auto has been 0.005% per month. Because of aggressive levels of customer service, National Auto has been able to keep its monthly cancellation rate below average, to approximately 0.125%. Average monthly premium paid per auto insured for the coming year is assumed to be $100.
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