The following monthly sales of chocolate boxes (in thousands of AU dollars) have been recorded for January, February, March, and April, respectively: 8.5, 8, 8, 9. Examining the forecasting accuracy for the month of April only, explain which of the following forecasting method would you recommend:

the Nave method, the Average method, or the Simple exponential smoothing method (assuming alpha=0.85 and initial state of 8)?