Question
The following payoff table shows the profit for a decision analysis problem with two decision alternatives and three states of nature: State of Nature Decision
The following payoff table shows the profit for a decision analysis problem with two decision alternatives and three states of nature:
State of Nature | |||
Decision Alternative | 1s1 | 2s2 | 3s3 |
1d1 | 250 | 100 | 25 |
2d2 | 100 | 100 | 75 |
a. Construct a decision tree for this problem.
b. If the decision-maker knows nothing about the probabilities of the 3 states of nature, what is the recommended decision using the optimistic, conservative, and minimax regret approaches?
If the probabilities for the states of nature are (1)=0.65,(2)=0.15,(3)=0.20P(s1)=0.65,P(s2)=0.15,andP(s3)=0.20then determine the following.
c. What is the optimal decision strategy if perfect information were available?
d. What is the expected value for the decision strategy developed in part (c)?
e. Using the expected value approach, what is the recommended decision without perfect information? What is its expected value?
f. What is the expected value of perfect information?
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