• The following table gives the average monthly exchange rate between the US dollar and the Australian dollar for 2018. It shows that 1 US dollar was equivalent to 1.256 Australian dollars in January 2018. a. Evaluate the components of time series of average monthly exchange rate b. Which model could smooth out the patterns that includes everything the model learned so far based on history record of the exchange rate? c. Would you apply the method in part (b) to forecast the monthly exchange rate for 2020? Please suggest and conduct all possible models that may apply to predict monthly foreign exchange rate in 2020 d. Give recommendations for 2 models applied in part (c)

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2018 2019 Jan 1.256 1.542 Feb 1.356 1.567 Mar 1.305 1.531 Apr 1.320 1.601 May 1.363 1.702 Jun 1.302 1.715 Jul 1.398 1.657 Aug 1.534 1.795 Sep 1.456 1.765 Oct 1.501 1.745 Nov 1.491 1.799 Dec 1.601 1.802 2018 2019 Jan 1.256 1.542 Feb 1.356 1.567 Mar 1.305 1.531 Apr 1.320 1.601 May 1.363 1.702 Jun 1.302 1.715 Jul 1.398 1.657 Aug 1.534 1.795 Sep 1.456 1.765 Oct 1.501 1.745 Nov 1.491 1.799 Dec 1.601 1.802