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The following table is one-year ratings transition matrix. Given a bonds rating now, the matrix gives the probability associated with the bond having a given
The following table is one-year ratings transition matrix. Given a bonds rating now, the matrix gives the probability associated with the bond having a given rating in a years time. For example, a bond that starts the year with an A rating has a 90% chance of maintaining that rating and an 8% chance of migrating to a B rating. Given a B-rated bond, what is the probability that the bond defaults (D rating) over 1 year? What is the probability that the bond defaults over 2 years?
To a rating of: | |||||
A | B | C | D | ||
A | 90% | 8% | 2% | 0% | |
Rating of: | B | 10% | 80% | 8% | 2% |
C | 0% | 25% | 60% | 15% | |
D | 0% | 0% | 0% | 100% |
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