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The following table shows the production of crude oil by country in 2020. (This table contains top 20 countries. The remain countries produce much less
The following table shows the production of crude oil by country in 2020. (This table contains top 20 countries. The remain countries produce much less than these countries and thus can be ignored in this analysis.) Using what you have learned in Weeks 1-4 in this course, answer the following questions. Please use the template specified after each question in your answer. (Note there is a word limit in each question.) Country Oil production 2020 (bbl/day)[1] United States 11,307,560 2 Russia 9,865,495 3 Saudi Arabia (OPEC) 9,264,921 4 + Canada 4,201,101 5 Iraq (OPEC) 4,102,311 6 China 3,888,989 7 United Arab Emirates (OPEC) 3,138,249 8 0 Brazil 2,939,950 9 Iran (OPEC) 2,665,809 10 Kuwait (OPEC) 2,625, 145 11 Nigeria (OPEC) 1,775,940 12 Kazakhstan 1,756,705 13 Norway 1,712,937 14 Mexico 1,710,303 15 Qatar 1,530,000 16 Angola (OPEC) 1,249,678 17 Algeria (OPEC) 1,122,432 18 Oman 948,967 19 United Kingdom 947,208 20 Colombia 791,844(1) Image a hypothetical scenario. In 2022, the production plans of all countries are the same as their plans in 2020. But because of an economic sanction imposed on Russia, Russia's production of crude oil is dropped by 4,000,000 (bbl/day). The dropped production is replaced by increased production of United Arab Emirates (2,000,000 bbl/day) and Iran (2,000,000 bbl/day). The production of all other countries stays the same (as in 2020). Treat each country as a "firm". How do you think the Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) of this "industry" will change after the sanction? You do not need to compute HHI or the change. Use intuition to answer the question. Use the template for your answer: The HHI will increase/decrease/stay the same, because ... [Maximum words: 100.] (2) In the above hypothetical scenario, predict how the profitability of the other crude oil firms (i.e., countries, excluding Russia, United Arab Emirates and Iran) would change, according to the insight of Cournot competition. You can assume that the demand function and the elasticity of demand for crude oil do not change. Use the template for your answer: The profitability of the other firms (countries) will increase/ decrease/ stay the same, because ... [Maximum words: 100.] (3) Do you think the above result is consistent with what you would expect in reality? Why or why not? Make sure to focus on the reasons related to the course content. You can judge from the assumption or model implication, whichever suits your need. Use the template for your answer: I would expect the reality would be different/same, because ... [Maximum words: 100.]
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