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The government is contemplating a project that protects a wilderness area. The project's initial costs incurred at time t=0 equal $375,000. Starting in year 1,
The government is contemplating a project that protects a wilderness area. The project's initial costs incurred at time t=0 equal $375,000. Starting in year 1, the project is expected to produce annual net benefits of $50,000 into perpetuity. (a) Calculate the net present value assuming a discount rate of 5%. Do you recommend going forward with this project? (b) Additional analysis reveals that there is some uncertainty about the initial cost estimates and the annual net benefits. Research suggests that there is a 75% chance that the start-up costs are $325,000 and a 25% chance that start-up costs are $500,000. The analysis suggests that while there is a 60% chance that annual net benefits are $50,000 into perpetuity, there is a 40% chance that these annual net benefits are $35,000. To deal with the uncertainty you undertake (i) an expected value analysis, and (ii) a worst-case scenario analysis. Briefly explain how you would proceed in each case and present your results for both (i) and (ii). Does this additional analysis support your initial recommendation (from (a) above)
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