The Happy Days is a comedy script which tells the story of a young gifted screenwriter and an old and famous actor. The role of the old actor is written specifically for Sir Brian Monahan, a British film star and a comic of great renown, the Oscar winner of 1999 and 2013. If Sir Brian takes part in the project, then Umanskis studio accounting department estimates that the film will make a profit of about $75 million. However, it is known that Sir Brian has serious health problems and a problem with alcohol. Greg estimates that there is a 20% chance that Monahan will not be able to complete the work on the project and will have to be replaced by another British, American, or maybe Canadian actor. Then, depending on who becomes a replacement actor, in the best case scenario, the film will make a profit of $15 million; in the worst case scenario, the film would most likely be a box-office failure with the loss of $8 million. Greg thinks that the first scenario is 70% probable and the second scenario is 30% probable.

1. A (simple) decision tree that shows the logical sequence of the decision problem given the Klein CGI research information is not available. 2. A recommendation regarding what project Greg Umanski should choose if the Klein CGI Inc. analysis is not available. 3. A decision strategy that Greg Umanski should follow if the research is conducted based on the posterior probabilities and a revised decision tree. 4. A recommendation as to whether Greg Umanski should employ Klein CGI Inc., along with the detailed decision policy, the value of the information provided by the research firm (find both EVPI and EVSI) and the efficiency of this information.