The last three exams your friend has taken, she received an A, and she had a special green smoothie beforehand every time. She thinks this is pretty strong evidence that her smoothie helped. (But she doesn't say what her new degree of confidence is that it helped.) Which of the following is the best assessment of her claim that her observation is pretty strong evidence that her smoothie helped?

a. she hasn't taken into account the probability that she would have gotten an A without taking the smoothie

b. your friend is subject to representativeness heuristic

c. your friend is ignoring reverse causation

d. she is right that this is strong evidence that her green smoothie works for tests, because of the high value for P(E | H)

e. she is forgetting about the probability of the hypothesis, that is P(H)