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The management of Brinkley Corporation is interested in using simulation to estimate the profit per unit for a new product. The selling price for the
The management of Brinkley Corporation is interested in using simulation to estimate the profit per unit for a new product. The selling price for the product will be $45 per unit. Probability distributions for the purchase cost, the labor cost, and the transportation cost are estimated as follows: Procurement Probability Labor Probability Transportation Probability Cost (5) Cost Cost (5) ($3) 10 0.25 20 0.10 3 0.75 11 0.45 22 0.25 5 0.25 12 0.30 24 0.35 25 0.30 1. Compute profit per unit for base- Base Case using most likely costs case (most likely), worst-case, and Profit = bestcase scenarios. Worst Case Profit = Best Case Profit = 2. Construct a simulation model to The average profit from the simulation model should be estimate the mean profit per unit. approximately: 3. Why is the simulation approach to [write your paragraph here] risk analysis preferable to generating a variety of what-if scenarios? 4. Management believes that the [write your paragraph here] project may not be sustainable ifthe profit per unit is less than $5. Use simulation to estimate the probability that the profit per unit will be less than $5. Construct a spreadsheet simulation model to simulate 10,000 rolls ofa die with the six sides numbered 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 and 6. 5. Construct a histogram of the 10,000 observed dice rolls. 6. For each roll of two dice, record the sum of the dice. Construct a histogram of the 10,000 observations of the sum of two dice. 7. For each roll ofthree dice, record the sum of the dice. Construct a histogram of the 10,000 observations of the sum of three dice. 8. Compare the histograms in parts (a), (b) and (c). What statistical phenomenon does this sequence of charts illustrate? (Hint: see Appendix 14.2)
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