The monthly demand for lime bags at McCall's Garden Supply for the past 11 months is provided below:

Month	Bags (thousands)
1	8
2	12
3	10
4	7
5	7
6	8
7	11
8	8
9	13
10	7
11	9
12

1. Use 2-month, 3-month, and 4-month moving averages to forecast demand in month 12.
2. Forecast demand with a 3-month weighted moving average in which demand in the most recent month is given a weight of 3 and demands in the other two months are each given a weight of 1.
3. Forecast demand for month 12 by using exponential smoothing with a smoothing constant of 0.7. Assume that the forecast for month 1 is 6,000 bags to begin the procedure.
4. Which of the methods analyzed here would you use for month 12 and beyond? Answer by making forecasts for months 5-11 using each of the above methods and then calculating the mean absolute deviation.