The Monty Hall Problem in one of this week's readings (in Wheelan) offers a perspective on why it is so important to understand and trust probability theory. It's conclusion is counter-intuitive to some people, so people will sometimes strongly resist changing their minds to obtain a better result. It illustrates how we tend to commit to an opinion or a choice we've made even when we should be willing to change our minds in the face of new data.

Explain whether you agree or disagree with the idea of switching as described in the readings, and offer a reason why your opinion should be correct. (Note: Switching is a good idea, so if you disagree you'd better offer a good reason.) Discuss how this scenario might be seen in other decisions that we have to make in engineering, or that we might observe being made by management. Do you think probability theory enters into people's thinking sufficiently?

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