The most recent kink point (e.g., peak or trough) in a business cycle announced by NBER was a trough in April 2020. You are a portfolio manager and try to allocate funds among several industries: automobiles, pharmaceuticals, food, and consumer electronics. What industries you should invest if you make decisions solely based on business cycle dates? Explain. Now assume that with additional analysis of various economic indicators at global, regional, and country level, you believe that the peak of current business cycle may have already appeared in the last quarter. 

Will this additional analysis have any impact on your investment decision? Explain.