Question
The number and frequency of a certain ocean's hurricanes annually from 1935 through 2010 is shown below. This means, for instance, that no hurricanes occurred
The number and frequency of a certain ocean's hurricanes annually from 1935 through 2010 is shown below. This means, for instance, that no hurricanes occurred during 5 of these years, only one hurricane occurred in 13 of these years, and so on. Complete parts a through c below.
Number | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 10 | 12 |
Frequency | 5 | 13 | 20 | 17 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
- Find the probabilities of 0-12 hurricanes each season using these data.
Number | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 10 | 12 |
Frequency | 5 | 13 | 20 | 17 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
Probability |
- Find the mean number of hurricanes.
- Assuming a Poisson distribution and using the mean number of hurricanes per season from part b, compute the probabilities of experience 0-12 hurricanes in a season.
Number | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 10 | 12 |
Frequency | 5 | 13 | 20 | 17 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
Poisson Probability |
Compare the probabilities assuming a Poisson distribution to your answers in part a. Divide each Poisson probability by its respective probability to get a measure of their relative ratios.
Number | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 10 | 12 |
Frequency | 5 | 13 | 20 | 17 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
Ratio |
Construct a chart to visualize these results.
How accurately does a Poisson distribution model this phenomenon? (mult choice)
- The Poisson distribution is a very inaccurate model of this phenomenon.
- The Poisson distribution is a very accurate model of this phenomenon.
- The Poisson distribution overestimates for the extreme numbers and underestimates for the central numbers.
- The Poisson distribution overestimates for the central numbers and underestimates for the extreme numbers.
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