1. The number of cans of soft drinks sold in a machine each week is recorded below. Develop forecasts for the period indicated and error calculations for each type of forecast as indicated below: You can submit your Excel sheet for the answers if you want. However, be sure you answer question G.

1. 150, 155, 155, 162, 170, 175, 172, 155, 170, 172

1. Nave Method

1. What is the forecast for week 10? ________

1. What is the Mean Absolute Error (MAE)? ________________

1. What is the Mean Squared Error (MSE)? _______________

1. What is the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE)? ________

1. 3 month moving average

1. What is the forecast for week 10?________

1. What is the Mean Absolute Error (MAE). ________________

1. What is the Mean Squared Error (MSE). _______________

1. What is the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE). ________

1. Weighted moving average. Use the weights of .88, .08 and .04 with .85 being the most current. In the Excel template, .88 should be in cell M15, .08 (L15), .04 (K15).

1. What is the forecast for week 10?________

1. What is the Mean Absolute Error (MAE)? ________________

1. What is the Mean Squared Error (MSE). _______________

1. What is the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE). ________

1. Exponential smoothing. Use an alpha level of .2

1. What is the forecast for week 10?________

1. What is the Mean Absolute Error (MAE)? ________________

1. What is the Mean Squared Error (MSE) _______________

1. What is the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) ________

1. Exponential smoothing. Use an alpha level of .6

1. What is the forecast for week 10?________

1. What is the Mean Absolute Error (MAE)? ________________

1. What is the Mean Squared Error (MSE). _______________

1. What is the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE). ________

1. Exponential smoothing. Use Excel Solver to determine the optimum alpha value to minimize MSE and answer:

1. What is the optimum alpha value?_______________-

1. What is the forecast for week 10?________

1. What is the Mean Absolute Error (MAE)? ________________

1. What is the Mean Squared Error (MSE)_______________

1. What is the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE)?________

1. Which method (a through f above) provides the best forecast based on the MAPE?__________

1. The number of new contributors to a public radio station's annual fund drive over the last ten years is

170, 168, 165, 172, 178, 180, 175, 185, 180, 188

Develop a trend equation (regression equation) for this information, and use it to predict period 11's number of new contributors.

What is the trend equation __ 164.2 + (2.16 * Year)_______________

What is the forecast for Period 11_187.96______________

What is the R square value? __.7741_____________

What does R square signify? _Repsonsible for 77.41%______________

Is the equation significant? How do you know? _It is significant cause the regression best describes the data and intercepts. ______________