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The Oceanion Peso (OCP) is pegged to the dollar at the rate of 8 peso per dollar. The US 1-month interest rate is currently 1%,

The Oceanion Peso (OCP) is pegged to the dollar at the rate of 8 peso per dollar. The US 1-month interest rate is currently 1%, whilst the equivalent Oceanian rate is 4%. If the expected change in the exchange rate, should the peso break its peg, is 5%, Calculate the closest to the implied probability of the peg breaking over the next month?

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