The owner of a convenience store near Salt Lake City in Utah has been tabulating weekly sales at the store, excluding gas. The accompanying data file contains the sales for 30 weeks.

a.Use the 3-period moving average to forecast sales for the 31st week.

Note: Do not round intermediate calculations. Round final answer to 2 decimal places.

yt = __________

b. Use simple exponential smoothing with = 0.3 to forecast sales for the 31st week.

Note: Do not round intermediate calculations. Round final answer to 2 decimal places.

yt = __________

c-1. Report the performance measures for the techniques in parts a and b.

Note: Do not round intermediate calculations. Round final answers to 2 decimal places.

Technique MSE MAD MAPE(%)

Moving average ________ _______ ___________

Exponential smoothing ________ ________ ___________

c-2. Which is the preferred technique for making the forecast?

___________ Because it has the ___________ _____________ out of three performance measures.

Week	Sales
1	5387
2	5522
3	5307
4	5503
5	5391
6	5500
7	5283
8	5178
9	4833
10	5013
11	5040
12	5420
13	5114
14	5076
15	4929
16	5231
17	4998
18	4920
19	4974
20	4889
21	5062
22	4727
23	5111
24	5385
25	5036
26	4868
27	5037
28	5354
29	5018
30	5206