The owner of the Toronto Blue Jays is Rogers Communications, a publicly traded company and also owner of the Rogers Centre. Therefore, it is in the shareholders best interests to improve attendance. (Rogers is also a broadcasting company, so they also earn significant revenues from the radio and television broadcasts of the Blue Jays games.)
You are advising Mark Shapiro, President of the Blue Jays, with respect to the factors that influence attendance at the games. Past studies comparing the 30 teams in Major League Baseball have shown that team success is positively correlated to overall attendance; fans want to see their home team win. In studying game-to-game variation in attendance, it is not clear whether the significant factor is
- the teams overall record, as measured in games above or below 0.500 (500) or,
- the teams proximity to a playoff position, as measured in the games ahead or behind (GB, for Games Below, so negative values mean being in first place), or
- the games leverage, cLI, a measure created to assess the relative importance of a game in terms of the impact the teams likelihood of winning the championship; a game of average impact is 1, while games of great impact have values above 1, while at the other extreme a team that had been eliminated from playoff contention has a cLI of 0
Scheduling is known to have some effect, as weekend games tend to be better attended than weekday games. Other scheduling factors include competing against Torontos favourite sport, hockey (The Toronto Maple Leafs season ended April 23, the playoffs ended June 12), playing on statutory holidays, and playing afternoon games on weekdays, when many people of working. Additionally, when the Blue Jays play their divisional opponents, the New York Yankees and the Boston Red Sox, fan interest is greater and historically, attendance has been high, aided by a significant number of Boston and New York fans coming to watch their teams play in Toronto.
In 2019, there were three player debuts that could have possibly impacted attendance. All three were sons of very successful baseball players, so the expectation for this trio have been high and their arrival had been anticipated for some time:
- Vladimir Guerrero, Jr., son of second-ballot Hall of Famer Vladimir Guerrero; debut April 26
- Cavan Biggio, son of third-ballot Hall of Famer Craig Biggio; debut May 24
- Bo Bichette, son of 4-time All Star, Dante Bichette, debut July 29 an away game
We have deliberately NOT included data on game-day promotions. Your task is to develop a model that will assist the Blue Jays management with respect to factors that significantly influence attendance, excluding the teams promotional activities.
Gm# Date Attendance D/N Opp Mo Tu We Th Fr Sa Su Hol +500 Rank GB CLI 1 28-Mar 45,048 D DET o o o o o o -1 2 1 0.92 2 29-Mar 18,054 N DET o o o o o o 0 2 0.5 0.88 3 30-ar 25,429 D DET o o o oo 1 1 1 0 0.96 4 31-Mar 16,098 D DET o o o ooo 1 0 3 1 1 5 1-Apr 10,460 N BAL 1 o o oo oo -1 4 2 1.08 6 2-Apr 12,110 N BAL o 1 -2 4 31.02 7 3-Apr 11,436 D BAL -1 3 2 0.96 14 12-Apr 17,326 N TBR o o o o1 -6 5 7 0.89 15 13-Apr 20,771 TBR o o o oo 1 -5 4 6 0.8 16 14-Apr 20,512 TBR 0 0 0 1 -6 5 70.86 24 23-Apr 20,384 N SFG o 1 -2 3 5 0.9 25 24-Apr 19,652 SFG oo 1 -3 3 5 0.85 26 26-Apr 28,688 N OAK o o o o oo -2 3 4.5 0.84 27 27-Apr 22,254 OAK o o o oo 1 -1 3 4.5 0.87 28 28-Apr 18,557 D OAK o o o oo o 1 3 4.5 0.92 35 6-May 12,292 N MIN 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 -5 4 7.5 0.77 36 7-May 14,039 N MIN o 1 -6 4 8.5 0.68 37 8-May 14,372 N MIN o o 1 -7 4 8.5 0.6 38 10-May 20,402 N CHW o o o o oo -6 4 7.5 0.56 39 11-May 24.563 CHW 0 0 0 1 0 -7 4 8.5 0.57 40 12-May 24 222 D CHW -8 4 8.5 0.53 47 20-May 26,794 BOS 1 1 o o oo o o 1 -9 4 10.5 0.49 48 21-May 14,407 N BOS o 1 -8 4 10.5 0.42 49 22-May 18,285 N BOS oo 1 -9 4 11.5 0.44 50 23-May 36,526 D BOS 0 1 0 0 0 -10 4 12.5 0.37 51 24-May 19,480 N SDP 0 0 0 o 1 -11 4 13 0.26 52 25-May 24,212 D SDP o o o oo 1 -12 4 14.5 0.23 53 26-May 24,462 D SDP o o o oo o 1 -11 4 13.5 0.18 60 4-Jun 20,671 N NYY o 1 -16 4 16.5 0.08 61 5-Jun 16,609 N NYY oo 1 -15 4 15.5 0.1 62 6-Jun 25,657 N NYY 1 o o -16 4 16.5 0.1 63 7-Jun 16,555 N ARI o o o o 1 -17 4 16.5 0.07 64 8-Jun 22,954 D ARI 0 0 0 0 0 1 -18 4 16.5 0.05 65 9-Jun 19,661 D ARI 0 0 -19 4 17.5 0.04 72 17-Jun 16,486 N LAA 1 o o oooo -20 4 18.5 0.02 73 18-Jun 17,259 N LAA 0 1 0 0 0 -21 4 19.5 0.02 74 19-un 16,225 N LAA 1 -22 4 20.5 0.01 75 20-Jun 24,291 N LAA 0 1 0 0 0 -21 4 20.5 0.01 82 28-Jun 18,399 N KCR o o o o o o -22 4 23 0 83 29-Jun 24,906 D KCR o o o oo o -21 4 23 0.01 84 30-Jun 21,727 D KCR o o o oo o 1 -22 4 24 85 1-Jul 29,339 D KCR 1 o o oo oo 1 -21 4 23.5 86 2-Jul 18,415 N BOS o 1 -22 4 23.5 87 3-Jul 16,883 N BOS -21 4 23.5 88 4-Jul 22,217 N BOS o o o o o o -22 4 24.5 0 89 5-Jul 20,530 N BAL o o o o -23 4 25.5 0 0 0 0 -24 -23 -26 -25 -26 -27 -26 -27 -24 -23 -22 0 BAL BAL CLE CLE CLE TBR TBR TBR NYY NYY NYY NYY TEX TEX TEX SEA SEA SEA 0 -23 -22 -21 4 25.5 4 24.5 4 27.5 4 27.5 4 28.5 4 28 4 27 4 28 4 30.5 4 29.5 4 28.5 4 29.5 4 30 4 30 4 31 4 30.5 4 31.5 4 31.5 4 33 0 -22 90 6-Jul 91 7-Jul 102 22-Jul 103 23-Jul 104 24-Jul 105 26-Jul 106 27-Jul 107 28-Jul 118 8-Aug 119 9-Aug 120 10-Aug 121 11-Aug 122 12-Aug 123 13-Aug 124 14-Aug 125 16-Aug 126 17-Aug 127 18-Aug 134 27-Aug 135 28-Aug 136 30-Aug 137 31-Aug 138 1-Sep 145 10-Sep 146 11-Sep 147 12-Sep 148 13-Sep 149 14-Sep 150 15-Sep 157 23-Sep 158 24-Sep 159 25-Sep 160 27-Sep 161 28-Sep 162 29-Sep 22,405 D 22,487 D 22,295 N 22,186 N 25,385 N 22,767 N 28,204 D 24,542 34,108 N 25,782 N 33,903 D 27,790 D 16,492 N 22,958 N 34,666 D 20,844 N 22,073 D 23,604 D 24,578 N 23,112 N 25,289 N 26,414 D 24,104 17,819 N 14,463 N 17,420 N 23,915 N 26,308 D 22,562 D 13,193 N 12,625 N 13,853 N 16,348 N 20,293 D 25,738 D o o o oo 1 o o o oo o 1 1 o o o o o o o 1 oo 1 o o o o 1 o o o oo 1 o o o oo o1 o o o o o o oo oo1 o o ooo io o o o oo o 1 1 o o oo oo o 1 o o 1 o o o o o o 1 o 1 o oo o o o o 1 o o o o o o o o o oo 1 o o o oo o 1 o 1 o o 1 o o oooo o o oo oo o o o oo 1 o o o oo o 1 1 o o oo oo o 1 o oooo oo 1 o o o o o o o o o oo 1 o o o ooo 1 -21 -22 -23 -26 ATL -27 0 4 4 34 34 ATL HOU HOU HOU BOS BOS BOS NYY NYY NYY BAL BAL -28 -27 -28 -33 -32 -33 -32 0 0 4 34 4 35 4 38.5 4 38 4 39.5 4 38.5 4 39.5 4 38.5 4 38 4 38 0 -33 0 0 -32 -29 -30 0 BAL 4 37 38 4 TBR TBR -29 -30 -29 -28 0 4 37 TBR 4 36 Gm# Date Attendance D/N Opp Mo Tu We Th Fr Sa Su Hol +500 Rank GB CLI 1 28-Mar 45,048 D DET o o o o o o -1 2 1 0.92 2 29-Mar 18,054 N DET o o o o o o 0 2 0.5 0.88 3 30-ar 25,429 D DET o o o oo 1 1 1 0 0.96 4 31-Mar 16,098 D DET o o o ooo 1 0 3 1 1 5 1-Apr 10,460 N BAL 1 o o oo oo -1 4 2 1.08 6 2-Apr 12,110 N BAL o 1 -2 4 31.02 7 3-Apr 11,436 D BAL -1 3 2 0.96 14 12-Apr 17,326 N TBR o o o o1 -6 5 7 0.89 15 13-Apr 20,771 TBR o o o oo 1 -5 4 6 0.8 16 14-Apr 20,512 TBR 0 0 0 1 -6 5 70.86 24 23-Apr 20,384 N SFG o 1 -2 3 5 0.9 25 24-Apr 19,652 SFG oo 1 -3 3 5 0.85 26 26-Apr 28,688 N OAK o o o o oo -2 3 4.5 0.84 27 27-Apr 22,254 OAK o o o oo 1 -1 3 4.5 0.87 28 28-Apr 18,557 D OAK o o o oo o 1 3 4.5 0.92 35 6-May 12,292 N MIN 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 -5 4 7.5 0.77 36 7-May 14,039 N MIN o 1 -6 4 8.5 0.68 37 8-May 14,372 N MIN o o 1 -7 4 8.5 0.6 38 10-May 20,402 N CHW o o o o oo -6 4 7.5 0.56 39 11-May 24.563 CHW 0 0 0 1 0 -7 4 8.5 0.57 40 12-May 24 222 D CHW -8 4 8.5 0.53 47 20-May 26,794 BOS 1 1 o o oo o o 1 -9 4 10.5 0.49 48 21-May 14,407 N BOS o 1 -8 4 10.5 0.42 49 22-May 18,285 N BOS oo 1 -9 4 11.5 0.44 50 23-May 36,526 D BOS 0 1 0 0 0 -10 4 12.5 0.37 51 24-May 19,480 N SDP 0 0 0 o 1 -11 4 13 0.26 52 25-May 24,212 D SDP o o o oo 1 -12 4 14.5 0.23 53 26-May 24,462 D SDP o o o oo o 1 -11 4 13.5 0.18 60 4-Jun 20,671 N NYY o 1 -16 4 16.5 0.08 61 5-Jun 16,609 N NYY oo 1 -15 4 15.5 0.1 62 6-Jun 25,657 N NYY 1 o o -16 4 16.5 0.1 63 7-Jun 16,555 N ARI o o o o 1 -17 4 16.5 0.07 64 8-Jun 22,954 D ARI 0 0 0 0 0 1 -18 4 16.5 0.05 65 9-Jun 19,661 D ARI 0 0 -19 4 17.5 0.04 72 17-Jun 16,486 N LAA 1 o o oooo -20 4 18.5 0.02 73 18-Jun 17,259 N LAA 0 1 0 0 0 -21 4 19.5 0.02 74 19-un 16,225 N LAA 1 -22 4 20.5 0.01 75 20-Jun 24,291 N LAA 0 1 0 0 0 -21 4 20.5 0.01 82 28-Jun 18,399 N KCR o o o o o o -22 4 23 0 83 29-Jun 24,906 D KCR o o o oo o -21 4 23 0.01 84 30-Jun 21,727 D KCR o o o oo o 1 -22 4 24 85 1-Jul 29,339 D KCR 1 o o oo oo 1 -21 4 23.5 86 2-Jul 18,415 N BOS o 1 -22 4 23.5 87 3-Jul 16,883 N BOS -21 4 23.5 88 4-Jul 22,217 N BOS o o o o o o -22 4 24.5 0 89 5-Jul 20,530 N BAL o o o o -23 4 25.5 0 0 0 0 -24 -23 -26 -25 -26 -27 -26 -27 -24 -23 -22 0 BAL BAL CLE CLE CLE TBR TBR TBR NYY NYY NYY NYY TEX TEX TEX SEA SEA SEA 0 -23 -22 -21 4 25.5 4 24.5 4 27.5 4 27.5 4 28.5 4 28 4 27 4 28 4 30.5 4 29.5 4 28.5 4 29.5 4 30 4 30 4 31 4 30.5 4 31.5 4 31.5 4 33 0 -22 90 6-Jul 91 7-Jul 102 22-Jul 103 23-Jul 104 24-Jul 105 26-Jul 106 27-Jul 107 28-Jul 118 8-Aug 119 9-Aug 120 10-Aug 121 11-Aug 122 12-Aug 123 13-Aug 124 14-Aug 125 16-Aug 126 17-Aug 127 18-Aug 134 27-Aug 135 28-Aug 136 30-Aug 137 31-Aug 138 1-Sep 145 10-Sep 146 11-Sep 147 12-Sep 148 13-Sep 149 14-Sep 150 15-Sep 157 23-Sep 158 24-Sep 159 25-Sep 160 27-Sep 161 28-Sep 162 29-Sep 22,405 D 22,487 D 22,295 N 22,186 N 25,385 N 22,767 N 28,204 D 24,542 34,108 N 25,782 N 33,903 D 27,790 D 16,492 N 22,958 N 34,666 D 20,844 N 22,073 D 23,604 D 24,578 N 23,112 N 25,289 N 26,414 D 24,104 17,819 N 14,463 N 17,420 N 23,915 N 26,308 D 22,562 D 13,193 N 12,625 N 13,853 N 16,348 N 20,293 D 25,738 D o o o oo 1 o o o oo o 1 1 o o o o o o o 1 oo 1 o o o o 1 o o o oo 1 o o o oo o1 o o o o o o oo oo1 o o ooo io o o o oo o 1 1 o o oo oo o 1 o o 1 o o o o o o 1 o 1 o oo o o o o 1 o o o o o o o o o oo 1 o o o oo o 1 o 1 o o 1 o o oooo o o oo oo o o o oo 1 o o o oo o 1 1 o o oo oo o 1 o oooo oo 1 o o o o o o o o o oo 1 o o o ooo 1 -21 -22 -23 -26 ATL -27 0 4 4 34 34 ATL HOU HOU HOU BOS BOS BOS NYY NYY NYY BAL BAL -28 -27 -28 -33 -32 -33 -32 0 0 4 34 4 35 4 38.5 4 38 4 39.5 4 38.5 4 39.5 4 38.5 4 38 4 38 0 -33 0 0 -32 -29 -30 0 BAL 4 37 38 4 TBR TBR -29 -30 -29 -28 0 4 37 TBR 4 36
