The price of oil is sitting at its highest level in more than a decade and is on the verge of hitting a new record in the wake of Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Fuel prices at the pump are driven largely by the wholesale price of energy which has shot up due to tensions over whether Russia will invade Ukraine. If the situation in Ukraine deteriorates, oil and gas supplies from Russia to Europe may be interrupted, pushing up wholesale prices further. The supply of oil and gas has already struggled to keep up with growing demand as the global economy picked up in recent months as Covid restrictions eased. Approximately two-thirds of petroleum products are consumed by transportation alone, while industrial uses, including the manufacturing of plastics and road construction materials such as asphalt, account for 28 per cent. Residential, commercial and electrical power account for the remaining 6 per cent.

Read the above article and answer the following questions:

Q3a.Draw a basic aggregate demand and aggregate supply graph (with LRAS constant) that shows the economy in long-run equilibrium. With reference to the business cycle and the AD/AS model, explain whether the increase in the price of oil has caused the economy to be in a recessionary or expansionary period.

Show the resulting short-run equilibrium on your graph and how the economy adjusts back to the long run equilibrium. (6 marks)