Question
The prior probabilities for events A 1 , A 2 , and A 3 are P ( A 1 ) =0.20, P ( A 2
The prior probabilities for events
A1,A2, andA3
are
P(A1) =0.20,
P(A2) =0.30,
and
P(A3) =0.50.
The conditional probabilities of eventBgiven
A1,
A2,
and
A3
are
P(B|A1) =0.30,
P(B|A2) =0.40,
and
P(B|A3) =0.50.
(Assume that
A1,A2, andA3
are mutually exclusive events whose union is the entire sample space.)(a)Compute
P(BA1),P(BA2), andP(BA3).
P(BA1)
=
P(BA2)
=
P(BA3)
= (b)Apply Bayes' theorem,
P(Ai|B) =
P(Ai)P(B|Ai) |
P(A1)P(B|A1) +P(A2)P(B|A2) ++P(An)P(B|An) |
,
to compute the posterior probability
P(A2|B).
(Round your answer to two decimal places.)(c)Use the tabular approach to applying Bayes' theorem to compute
P(A1|B),
P(A2|B),
and
P(A3|B).
(Round your answers to two decimal places.)
Events | P(Ai) | P(B|Ai) | P(AiB) | P(Ai|B) |
---|---|---|---|---|
A1 | 0.20 | 0.30 | ||
A2 | 0.30 | 0.40 | ||
A3 | 0.50 | 0.50 | ||
1.00 | 1.00 |
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