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The prior probabilities for events A 1 , A 2 , and A 3 are P ( A 1 ) =0.20, P ( A 2

The prior probabilities for events

A1,A2, andA3

are

P(A1) =0.20,

P(A2) =0.30,

and

P(A3) =0.50.

The conditional probabilities of eventBgiven

A1,

A2,

and

A3

are

P(B|A1) =0.30,

P(B|A2) =0.40,

and

P(B|A3) =0.50.

(Assume that

A1,A2, andA3

are mutually exclusive events whose union is the entire sample space.)(a)Compute

P(BA1),P(BA2), andP(BA3).

P(BA1)

=

P(BA2)

=

P(BA3)

= (b)Apply Bayes' theorem,

P(Ai|B) =

P(Ai)P(B|Ai)
P(A1)P(B|A1) +P(A2)P(B|A2) ++P(An)P(B|An)

,

to compute the posterior probability

P(A2|B).

(Round your answer to two decimal places.)(c)Use the tabular approach to applying Bayes' theorem to compute

P(A1|B),

P(A2|B),

and

P(A3|B).

(Round your answers to two decimal places.)

Events

P(Ai)

P(B|Ai)

P(AiB)

P(Ai|B)

A1

0.20 0.30

A2

0.30 0.40

A3

0.50 0.50
1.00 1.00

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