Question
The prior probabilities for events A 1 , A 2 , and A 3 are P ( A 1 ) = 0.30, P ( A
The prior probabilities for events A1, A2, and A3
are P(A1) = 0.30,
P(A2) = 0.20,
and P(A3) = 0.50.
The conditional probabilities of event B given A1,
A2,
and A3
are P(B | A1) = 0.40,
P(B | A2) = 0.30,
and P(B | A3) = 0.50.
(Assume that A1, A2, and A3
are mutually exclusive events whose union is the entire sample space.)
(a)
Compute P(B A1), P(B A2), and P(B A3).
P(B A1)
= P(B A2)
= P(B A3)
=
(b)
Apply Bayes' theorem, P(Ai | B) =P(Ai)P(B | Ai)P(A1)P(B | A1) + P(A2)P(B | A2) + + P(An)P(B | An),
to compute the posterior probability P(A2 | B).
(Round your answer to two decimal places.)
(c)
Use the tabular approach to applying Bayes' theorem to compute P(A1 | B),
P(A2 | B),
and P(A3 | B).
(Round your answers to two decimal places.)
Events P(Ai)
P(B | Ai)
P(Ai B)
P(Ai | B)
A1
0.30 0.40 A2
0.20 0.30 A3
0.50 0.50
1.00
1.00
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