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The prior probabilities for events A 1 , A 2 , and A 3 are P ( A 1 ) = 0.30, P ( A

The prior probabilities for events A1, A2, and A3

are P(A1) = 0.30,

P(A2) = 0.20,

and P(A3) = 0.50.

The conditional probabilities of event B given A1,

A2,

and A3

are P(B | A1) = 0.40,

P(B | A2) = 0.30,

and P(B | A3) = 0.50.

(Assume that A1, A2, and A3

are mutually exclusive events whose union is the entire sample space.)

(a)

Compute P(B A1), P(B A2), and P(B A3).

P(B A1)

= P(B A2)

= P(B A3)

=

(b)

Apply Bayes' theorem, P(Ai | B) =P(Ai)P(B | Ai)P(A1)P(B | A1) + P(A2)P(B | A2) + + P(An)P(B | An),

to compute the posterior probability P(A2 | B).

(Round your answer to two decimal places.)

(c)

Use the tabular approach to applying Bayes' theorem to compute P(A1 | B),

P(A2 | B),

and P(A3 | B).

(Round your answers to two decimal places.)

Events P(Ai)

P(B | Ai)

P(Ai B)

P(Ai | B)

A1

0.30 0.40 A2

0.20 0.30 A3

0.50 0.50

1.00

1.00

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