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The prior probabilities for events A 1 and A 2 are P ( A 1 ) =0.20 and P ( A 2 ) =0.80. It

The prior probabilities for events

A1

and

A2

are

P(A1) =0.20

and

P(A2) =0.80.

It is also known that

P(A1A2) = 0.

Suppose

P(B|A1) =0.20

and

P(B|A2) =0.10.

(a)Are

A1

and

A2

mutually exclusive?They ---Select--- are are not mutually exclusive.How could you tell whether or not they are mutually exclusive?

P(A2)P(A2|A1)P(A1A2) = 0 P(A1)P(A1|A2)P(A1) +P(A2) = 1P(B|A1)P(B|A2)

(b)Compute

P(A1B)

and

P(A2B).

P(A1B)

=

P(A2B)

= (c)Compute

P(B).

(d)Apply Bayes' theorem to compute

P(A1|B)

and

P(A2|B).

(Round your answers to four decimal places.)

P(A1|B)

=

P(A2|B)

=

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