The probability of a recession has dropped sharply, according to the most recent survey of economists. That's good. However, many people are still feeling the pain. Inflation has not gone down. According to the latest CPI report, the inflation rate has decreased, but prices are still rising at almost 1.5x times our target rate. The number of people with more than one job has risen sharply, as some say, due to families trying to afford basic goods and necessities. The dominant theme in 2024 is how often the Fed cuts rates this year. The disconnect between what the market expects for rate cuts and what the Fed is forecasting could have consequential ramifications.

Please discuss the forecasted growth rate of 1% and how that could affect Federal Reserve policy. How will the slower pace of job creation affect growth? Are the five or six rate cuts investors expect in 2024 a more reasonable expectation than the three rate cuts that the Federal Reserve has been signaling? Please explain.