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The problem is that the CEO of IDLA is still in two minds as to whether to expand the business by establishing a new outlet

The problem is that the CEO of IDLA is still in two minds as to whether to expand the business by establishing a new outlet in Townsend. Should IDLA build a Grocery only outlet, build a Grocery plus Bottleshop outlet, or not build an outlet at all. The CEO has been studying the successes of establishing such outlets in the past and has identified only two states of nature, namely that an outlet in Townsend could be economically successful, or that it could be an economic failure. The CEO of IDLA feels that there is a 60% chance of an economic success (ES) and a 40% chance of an economic failure (EF). With these probabilities the CEO believes that IDLA can make a profit of $3,000,000 annually if the outlet is economic successful and it is a Grocery plus Bottleshop, but IDRA would lose $2,250,000 annually if the outlet was an economic failure. However, should IDLA only have a Grocery-only outlet then the CEO feels that IDLA would only earn $1,500,000 if the outlet is economic successful, and lose $750,000 annually if the outlet was an economic failure. The CEOs third alternative is not to establish an outlet at all and this would result in $0 profit. However, the CEO is not confident of his figures, so he seeks advice from a Marketing Firm, who inform him that marketing surveys can be positive or negative. The experts told the CEO that, statistically, for economic successes (ES) marketing surveys were positive and predicted correctly 75% of the time, only in 25% of the cases did the marketing surveys incorrectly predict economic failures (EF). When, however, for economic failures, 80% of the marketing surveys correctly predicted negative results, and in 20% of the cases the marketing surveys predicted incorrectly positive results. With these probabilities and the probabilities for economic success P(ES) = 0.6 and economic failure P(EF) = 0.4. The CEO was able to determine the probabilities required for his decision. The Marketing Firm charge (or offer) the CEO $250,000 for their advice. Construct the decision tree to assist the CEO in his decision. (Decision Tree is the only answer required. Please do not give the Probabilities as the answer)

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