The production manager has decided to order a production run of Q=35000. Use simulation to find the distribution of profit given the following random inputs:

The fixed cost varies uniformly between 9 and 11 million dollars. The marginal cost is normally distributed with a mean of $1000 and a standard deviation of $200. The Sales Forecast is triangularly distributed with a minimum of 20000, a most likely value of 30,000 and an upper limit of 40000.  All variables are continuous. Don't round to integer values. 

Use 1000 iterations and find the mean and the 90^th percentile of the profit distribution and the probability of a loss. Include the histogram of Profit in your response. 

 

A B D E 1 Special Products Co. Break-Even Analysis 2 3 Data $2,000 Unit Revenue Fixed Cost $10,000,000 $1,000 Marginal Cost Sales Forecast 30000 Production Quantity 30000 45 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 112345 11 12 13 F Results Total Revenue $60,000,000 $10,000,000 Total Fixed Cost Total Variable Cost $30,000,000 Profit (Loss) $20,000,000 Break-Even Point 10,000 14 15 G H Range Name BreakEvenPoint Cell F9 FixedCost C5 MarginalCost C6 ProductionQuantity C9 Profit F7 SalesForecast C7 TotalFixedCost F5 TotalRevenue F4 TotalVariableCost F6 UnitRevenue C4