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Malaysia's GDP to grow 6.3% to 7.5% next year,

KUALA LUMPUR (July 7): International agencies have forecastthatMalaysia's gross domestic product (GDP) growth in 2021 willbe in the range of 6.3% to7.5%, according to Finance Minister Tengku Datuk Seri Zafrul Tengku Abdul Aziz.The finance minister said the projections are subjectto Malaysia's continued success in managing Covid-19, as well as in steering and nurturing the economy towards recovery and growth.

"As Malaysia is an open economy, whether our growth will be a U-shaped or V-shaped recovery will also depend on external factors, such as the recovery of our major trading partners as well as the restoration of global supply chains," he said in his welcoming address at Invest Malaysia 2020 today.

Malaysia recorded only five new Covid-19 cases yesterday, with only 198 active cases and anapproximately 98% recovery rate to date. "The rate of infections may have been low in our country, but the public have been constantly reminded against complacency."Everyone has been urged to continue complying with thestandard operating procedures (SOPs) for various sectors and activities in order to prevent new infections in the country," he said.

Tengku Zafrul said for 2020, GDP growth has been estimated to be within the range of -3.8% to 0.5% by various agencies.

Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) has projected economic growth to be within -2% to 0.5%, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) -3.8% and the World Bank -3.1%."This is wholly expected as more than 150 out of 195 countries in the world are expected to post negative growth in 2020.

"But what is most important is to ensure that a health crisis does not turn into an economic crisis.This is why Malaysia has rolled out the Prihatin Rakyat Economic Stimulus Package and the National Economic Recovery Plan (Penjana)," he noted.

On the health and resiliency of Malaysia's capital markets, Tengku Zafrul said over the past decade, Malaysia's capital markets have grown by an average of 5.1% annually and are valued at over RM3 trillion, twice the size of the country's GDP, and represented almost equally in terms of total equity market capitalisation as well as the value of bonds outstanding.

"Without a doubt, the capital markets have served as a key platform to mobilise savings and investments by efficiently allocating resources to finance businesses that create jobs and wealth," he said.

."As they say, behind every crisis there is an opportunity. We believe that investors returned to the Malaysian markets in May to invest in companies that would benefit not just from the reopening of the economy, but also from the raft of stimulus measuresand tax incentives offered by the government," he added.

In addition, Tengku Zafrul said various global rankings had also validated Malaysia's position on numerous metrics, and are testimonyto the country's sound policies and measures.

Among them, Malaysia was ranked fourth globally in handling the Covid-19 crisis by the Toluna-Blackbox Index of Global Crisis Perceptions 2020; 12th in the World Bank's Ease of Doing BusinessReport 2020 as well as in the DHL Global Connectedness Index 2019; 26th in the Global Talent Competitiveness Index 2020; and 27th in the World Economic Forum's 2019 Global CompetitivenessIndex.

Tengku Zafrul said Malaysia's total approved investments are a testament to the country'sposition in ease of doing business.

Earlier this year, five manufacturing and services projects by foreign investors worth RM4.6 billion were approved in sectors such as electrical and electronics as well as medical devices.

Source: The edge.

Based on the passage above, prepare analysis based on the question below.

a)"As Malaysia is an open economy, whether our growth will be a U-shaped or V-shaped recovery will also depend on external factors, such as the recovery of our major trading partners as well as the restoration of global supply chains".

what are the other 5 external factors that can determine the recovery shape our economy.

b)5 reasons why it is hard for the policymakers to decide if the economy is operating at its potential output level.