Question
The simulation overall growth rate may vary from round to round but the overall size of the market in each segment will be much bigger
The simulation overall growth rate may vary from round to round but the overall size of the market in each segment will be much bigger by round 8 than it was in round 0. In the Capstone Courier Round 0 Report in Capstone, you will find details about the size of each of the five segments in terms of units sold at the end of round 0. In the Industry Conditions Report and in the Capstone Courier Round 0 Report, you will also find projected growth rates for round 1 for each segment. In general, projected annual growth rates for Low End and Traditional segments are expected to stay low from year to year, and growth rates for High End, Size, and Performance Segments are expected to stay high from year to year. Assuming these growth rates stay constant, calculate total expected unit sales for each of the five segments for all 8 rounds and add a total column that sums the sales of all rounds from R1 to R8. Provide rows even for segments you don’t plan to target (see sample below). Be clear on whether your answers in each cell are in raw units or in thousands of units expected to be sold, You should be able to go back to the Demand Analysis section of the Situation Analysis homework assignment to help you fill in these values in this cell.
Segment Total | R0 Units | R1 Units | R2 | R3 Units | R4 Units | R5 Units | R6 | R7 Units | R8 Units | R1-R8 |
Low End | 8960 | |||||||||
Traditional | 7387 | |||||||||
Size | 1984 | |||||||||
Performance | 1915 | |||||||||
High End | 2554 | |||||||||
Total for Industry | 22800 |
Using information from that prior table, now estimate your own firm’s possible sales level during the simulation through a table showing two scenarios.
Scenario 1- your firm attains its target market share level (from part 2 above) in each of the segments that your strategy targets in round 1 and holds that level of constant market share through the end of round 8 through a single product in each target segment. If your team decides it wants to drop one or more segments leave those segment rows blank. Hence if you drop the low-end and traditional segments then you would assume you only have 3 products left- one for each remaining segment.
Scenario 2- your firm attains its target market share level with a single product (from part 2 above) in each of the segments that your strategy targets in round 1 and then holds this level through round 3. At the exact start of round 4, your firm has a second product go live (Revision date of January 1) in each target segment. This increases the firm’s market share by a fixed amount of your choice (will always be less than double (2X) of your initial market share level from only one product). Assume a market share increase somewhere between 10-60% with the second product. Report your forecasted total sales in the simulation for each scenario in a table like the following. Note that you will have to first assign an average price point for each segment over the course of the simulation. The formula to complete each cell is Average Price*Segment Units Sales for the Specified Period * Firm Expected Market Share in Segment Over Same Specified Period. The period used to calculate Scenario 1 is R1-R8. The period used to calculate Scenario 2 must be broken into 2 parts because R1-R3 involves one product per target segment and R4-R8 involves two products per segment (up to 8 products maximum) with a higher expected market share in the segments that have two products. Calculate the final Scenario 2 column on the far right by simply adding the R1-R3 and R4-R8 columns to get the R1-R8 estimates. Be sure to specify whether the values in each cell are stated in raw dollars or in thousands of dollars.
Targeted Segment | Segment Total Units Sold R1-R8 Times Assumed Market Share Percent | Average Assumed Price for Segment (across all 8 rounds) | Scenario 1 | Segment Total Units Sold R1-R3 Times Assumed Market Share Percent | Scenario 2 Estimated Sales R1-R3 for Firm | Segment Total units Sold R4-R8 Times Assumed Mkt. Share Percent | Scenario 2 Estimated Sales R4-R8 for Firm | Scenario 2 |
Low End | ||||||||
Traditional | ||||||||
Size | ||||||||
Performance | ||||||||
High End | ||||||||
Firm Total |
Underneath this table briefly comment on whether or not your team thinks adding a second product in one or more segments might be a good idea at some point in the simulation.
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