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The value of a non-paying dividends stock follows a Geometric Brownian motion, with drift of 38% and diffusion of 21%. The current stock price is

The value of a non-paying dividends stock follows a Geometric Brownian motion, with drift of 38% and diffusion of 21%. The current stock price is $50. What is the probability that a European put option on the stock with an exercise price of 48 and a maturity date in 6 months will be exercised?

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