The war in Ukraine has delivered a significant supply side blow to Europe. Very high energy prices plus the lack of plentiful availability of natural gas, has resulted in a sizable negative productivity shock. Simultaneously, Europe's export markets in Russia have been shut down reducing the demand for European exports. At the same time, some Emerging Markets, such as Brazil, have benefitted from the resulting high commodity prices. a. Explain the likely impact of the war on Europe's current account and real exchange rate. Make sure to trace your analysis to the likely response of savings, investments, exports, imports, the current account and the real exchange rate.