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The wide-open spaces of Etobicoke have made it a developer's dream. ETO Development Corporation is a new real estate developer based in the Greater Toronto

The wide-open spaces of Etobicoke have made it a developer's dream.

ETO Development Corporation is a new real estate developer based in the Greater Toronto Area. The name of the company refers to the Etobicoke that is an anglicized adaptation of Aboriginal languages word that means place where the alders grow .

ETO Development Corporation purchased land not far from the intersection of Dundas Street West and Kipling Avenue. The top managers of ETO, however, have different opinions on how this land can be used. Eventually, ETO commissioned preliminary architectural drawings for three different projects: High-Rise Condos; Low-Rise Condos; Townhouse Complex. Also, it is recognized that the financial success of the project depends on the situation on the real estate market, Strong Demand or Weak Demand. The ETO expectations are summarized in the following table (payoffs are in $$millions).

Decision Alternatives States of Nature
Strong Demand Weak Demand
High-Rise Condos 2626 11-11
Low-Rise Condos 1616 55
Townhouse Complex 1111 99

Originally, ETO specialists counted on 0.680.68 probability of strong demand.

(a) Suppose that you need to construct a simple decision tree that shows the logical sequence of the decision problem. Select the correct sketch of the decision tree based on the information above.

Note that P(S)=probability of strong demand, P(W)=probability of weak demand. Also, we use the following notations:

(b) Using the sketch from the previous question and SilverDecisions/TreePlan, construct a simple decision tree. Based on the simple decision tree answer the following questions.

Keep 2 decimal places in the EMV answers.

  • Find the expected monetary value for High-Rise Condos decision.

EMV(High-Rise Condos) == (in $$millions)

  • Find the expected monetary value for Low-Rise Condos decision.

EMV(Low-Rise Condos) == (in $$millions)

  • Find the expected monetary value for Townhouse Complex decision.

EMV(Townhouse Complex) == (in $$millions)

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