There are problems with each of the following statistical generalizations. Specify if they are problems of inadequate sample size and/or a biased sample.

1. Ed lives in Norfolk, VA. He is in the Navy. So, most people who live in Norfolk are in the Navy.
2. A poll was taken of 50,000 registered voters who were veterans. 75% supported a policy to increase funding to the military. Therefore, 75% of voters support a policy to increase funding to the military.
3. Tina visited the Chesapeake campus of Tidewater Community College. She concluded that most students at TCC live in the suburbs.
4. Tina took a philosophy class at TCC Norfolk with Dr. McCammon. She noticed that he wears a lot of sweaters. "Philosophy professors all wear sweaters" she concluded.

The following obviously lacks explanatory virtues, but which ones?

5. Driving home from work, Christopher saw a stranger walking a dog that looked exactly like his dog. Christopher concludes that a stranger has taken pity on him because of the diarrhea mess, kidnapped his dog from his apartment, and he will never have to clean up dog diarrhea ever again.

Consider the following arguments from analogy. Diagnose them as strong or weak. If they are weak, explain the relevant disanalogies.

6. New Orleans has been hit by at least two major hurricanes this century. New Orleans is beside a large body of water. Chicago is also beside a large body of water. Therefore, Chicago will also be hit by at least two major hurricanes this century.

7. I didn't study for the test last time and got a bad grade. I didn't study for the test this time either. There is no reason to think this test is any easier. I will probably get a bad grade again.

Calculate the probabilities for the following. Show your work.

8. There are 32 pieces in a standard chess set (white and black combined). Imagine we put all the pieces in a box. You cannot see into the box. Each chess set includes 4 bishops - 2 white and 2 black. What is the probability that you pull a white bishop out of the box 3 times in a row (replacing it each time you pull it out and trying again without looking)?

9. There are two queens in the box. What are the odds that I will not pull first one queen and then the other from the box on consecutive tries (i.e. I don't replace the first queen in the box if I pull it out on the first try)?

Identify the fallacy in the blank.

10. Person A has just argued that sometimes we have false beliefs about what is right and wrong. Person B replies, "You just want to force your ethics on everyone!" ___________

11. "The love you feel for your children is just chemicals firing in your brain, so that love is just an illusion." ___________

12. Suppose a cop pulls over a suspected drunk driver. The cop administers a sobriety test the cop knows is 90% accurate. The driver fails the test. The cop concludes there is a 90% chance the driver is drunk. ___________

13. "The boss says stealing is wrong, so it must be wrong." ___________

14. "Every atom in this cup is invisible. So, the cup must be invisible." ___________

15. "I see your kids play violent video games. Next thing you know they'll be shooting and stabbing the neighbors." ___________

16. "Your choice is clear: study hard and get rich; don't study and starve." ___________

17. "If the Bible turned out to be true, people would start falling for any superstition." ___________