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This assignment has you redo the example presented on pages 182-189 of Bernell, but with several changes. Make the following changes to the decision tree
This assignment has you redo the example presented on pages 182-189 of Bernell, but with several changes. Make the following changes to the decision tree on page 184. Please note that any change in a probability affects two probabilities, as the sum of the probabilities at a chance node must sum to 1.0. Original Value for value assignment Unvaccinated branch Pr(remains well) 0.90 0.85 Pr(recovers, so doesn't see doctor) 0.80 0.70 Cost of seeing doctor $100 $150 Pr(recovers, given that sees doctor) 0.99 0.95 Cost of hospitalization $5000 $7500 Vaccinated branch Cost of vaccine $50 $60 Pr(remains well) 0.97 0.95 Pr(recovers, so doesn't see doctor) 0.90 0.88 Cost of seeing doctor $100 $150 Pr(recovers, given that sees doctor) 0.999 0.98 Cost of hospitalization $5000 $7500 Make the following changes to Exhibits 9.6 and 9.7 (these changes will flow through the tables; you will need to make those changes): Age Survivors, Deaths, Survivors, Deaths, Exhibit 9.6 Exhibit 9.6 Exhibit 9.7 Exhibit 9.7 95 100 22 100 6 96 78 15 94 16 97 63 11 78 11 98 50 7 67 6 99 45 2 61 1
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