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This below is my international finance report, and i need a conclusion for this reprot Executive Summary:This report presents an analysis of exchange rate dynamics,
This below is my international finance report, and i need a conclusion for this reprot
Executive Summary:This report presents an analysis of exchange rate dynamics, interest rates and inflation rates for the British Pound, Japanese Yen, and Brazilian Real against the US Dollar from January st to December st The analysis is divided into three parts; the first part focuses on investigating each foreign exchange rate individually by classifying which type of exchange rate it falls under while also presenting various statistics mean median, standard deviation, minimum and maximum, skewness and kurtosis linked with each currency. It has been determined that UK Pound and Japanese Yen are both freely floating, while Brazilian Real is both fixed and freely floating. For the second part of this report, annual interest rates and inflation rates were extracted from OECD and world Bank sources, while the yearly arithmetic average of the exchange rates was calculated using statistics. All these values are presented in comprehensive tables to make it visually easier to examine the change in values for each country across the years. We can determine that Brazil has higher percentages in terms of interest rates and inflation rates, while Japan has lower percentages. In the third part of this report, all the values we have extracted were used to create graphs representing the purchasing power parity relationship PPP and the international Fisher effect IFE relationship for each of the three currencies. Through this, we have determined that there are differences between what is forecasted and the actual observed movements in the exchange rates. This report provides insights into how exchange rates and different economic factors such as inflation rates and interest rates are related. It provides an extensive study, through statistical and graphical analysis, on the behavior of all these factors on our three chosen currencies.Introduction and objectives:In this international finance project, we explore the complexities of global financial markets and their influence on economies globally. Our objective is to analyze different facets of international finance, such as foreign exchange rates, trade balances, and capital movements. Through this analysis, we seek to understand how nations engage in economic interactions on a worldwide level and how financial choices affect various stakeholders across the globe.The project report covers important concepts from the course that were applied in the project, offering a more indepth understanding and introduction to foreign exchange rates and their correlation with inflation and nominal interest rates. It concludes that there is a connection between inflation rates and foreign exchange rate changes based on purchasing power parity, as well as a notable relationship between nominal interest rates and foreign exchange rate fluctuations. We have selected currencies Japanese Yen, UK pounds, and Brazil Real against USD. Data for year January to December Additionally, all sources used in the report are listed with references.Some objectives of this report is to classify and explain type of exchange rate systems for the chosen currencies, calculate percentage of exchange rates movements using statistics tools, find yearly average exchange rates, interest rates and inflation for period to In addition analyzing foreign exchange rates, finding exchange rates using concepts we have covered before such as Purchasing Power Parity and International fisher effectPart A:aOur chosen currencies are the UK Pound, Japanese Yen, Brazilian Real, where UK Pound and Japanese Yen are both freely floating, and Brazilian Real is both fixed and freely floating. Exchange rate system fall into four categories, fixed, free, pegged, and managed floating. The Central Bank of a country controls the exchange rate system that is used in determining the value of a nation's currency. Fixed floating is when A system in which the countrys Central Bank intervenes in the currency market to fix peg the exchange rate in relation to another currency eg US$ When they want their currency to appreciate, they buy it on forex markets using their foreign reserves, thus increasing its demand. When they want their currency to depreciate, they sell it on forex markets, thus increasing its supply.Freely floating occurs when a government allows the exchange rate to be determined purely by market forces and there is no attempt to ask the central bank to influence the external value of the exchange rate. The UK has followed a free floating currency system since September when the UK left the EUs exchange rate mechanism. In Japanese monetary authorities decide to let the yen float freely against the dollar, and the yen appreciates as far as to the dollar. The Brazilian exchange rate has been both fixed and freely floating at different times. When it was established in the Real was fixed to the USD, though in the Real became freely floated to the USD, which is its current position.The pegged exchange rate system incorporates aspects of floating and fixed exchange rate systems. Smaller economies that are particularly susceptible to currency fluctuations will peg their currency to a single major currency or a basket of currencies. These currencies are chosen based on which country the smaller economy experiences a lot of trade activity with or on which currency the nations debt is denominated in For example, if a small nation that does a lot of trade with the USA decides to peg its currency to the US dollar, its currency will fluctuate in value in roughly the same manner as the USD. The practice eliminates highmagnitude fluctuations and makes the smaller economys currency a safer investment. Larger economies are less hesitant to set up trade deals with such currencies since their value will likely not fluctuate beyond reasonable levels.Managed floating Exchange Rate System is allowed to fluctuate within a specified band around a desired valuation. If it goes outside of this band then the Central Bank will intervene to bring it back within the band. When they want their currency to appreciate to back within the band, they buy it on forex markets using their foreign reserves, thus increasing its demand. When they want their currency to depreciate back into the band, they sell it on forex markets, thus increasing its supply.Advantages:Balanced Approach: It provides a balanced exchange rate mechanism, allowing flexibility while maintaining some level of control to ensure economic stability.Responsive to Economic Shocks: The managed float system can absorb and respond to economic disturbances, moderating economic cycles and mitigating potential impacts. Understanding the impacts of exchange rate changes can enhance comprehension of this balance.Disadvantages:Market Uncertainty: The unpredictable interventions can lead to market uncertainties, influencing trading decisions and market dynamics adversely.Resource Intensity: Effective interventions require substantial resources and reserves, posing potential strains and challenges for economic management.Realworld Example:Countries like India adopt a managed float system, strategically intervening to balance stability with growth and adapt to evolving economic landscapes. b Percentage movement in the exchange ratesPrecentage Movement BRLJPYGBPMeanMedianStandard deviationMaximumMinimumSkewnessKurtosis cPart B:The table presented below displays the yearly average exchange rates against the USD over the period of for the countries Japan United Kingdom, BrazilYearly Averaged Exchange Rates Reference area JapanUnited KingdomBrazilThe table presented below displays the annual longterm interest rates over the period of for the countries Japan United Kingdom, Brazil, United StatesFrequency of observations: AnnualMeasure: Longterm interest ratesUnit of measure: Percent per annum The table presented below displays the yearly inflation rates over the period of for the countries Japan United Kingdom, Brazil, United StatesFrequency of observations: AnnualMeasure: Inflation ratesUnit of measure: Percent per annum Graphical representation of the movement in inflation rates over the period for the countries Japan United Kingdom, Brazil, United States:Japan United Kingdom Brazil United States Part C:Purchasing power parity PPP :Is a theory that is used in economics that says if the exchange rates between two currencies are equal then the purchasing power parity will be equal for both countries. It specifies the relationship between exchange rates and relative inflation of two countries. PPP is mostly used to compare economic performance and living standards between different countries.Absolute form of PPP:Absolute form of PPP compares absolute prices levels of products in different countries without considering exchange rates. It states that prices of products in one country should be equal to the price level of another country which is usually expressed in US dollar.Relative form of PPP:Relative form of PPP compares the relative price level between two countries by considering the exchange rate between the two currencies.The PPP relationship can be expressed as:E P PE exchange rate between currenciesP price levels of basket of goods and services in country P price level of basket of goods and services in countries If P P then exchange rate will be higher because of higher price level in country If P p then exchange rate will be lower because of lower price level in country Empirical validation of PPP relationship involves testing if the actual exchange rates match the exchange rates predicted by relative price levels. While PPP may not hold in the shortterm due to market imperfections such as transaction cost, inflation differentials and other factors. While PPP is useful for understanding how to determine exchange rates, analyze relative price levels of different countries over longterm.International Fisher Effect IFE :It is an economic theory that shows the relationship between inflation and interest rates in different countries. A change in the nominal interest rate of a nation can have an impact on changes in the value of that nations currency. This is expressed in the international fisher effect. A high nominal interest rate will lead the currency to depreciate more because of the high rate of inflation. International fisher effect is measured by:Ef i home i foreign Ef exchange rate for foreign currency I home interest rate for home currency I foreign interest rate for foreign currencyEmpirical research has revealed that the nominal interest rate provided by the Fisher effect is not the only factor influencing the movement of currency. The exchange rate is influenced by numerous different factors. Adjustments were thought to be made in accordance with the nominal interest rate in the past. However, the developments in the present world are expected to differ from the ones that were predicted. This is a result of disparate nominal interest rate and inflation expectations. These days, it is more typical to use the consumer price index to estimate changes in the rate of inflation.Graphical presentation: PPP graph x axis in the foreign currencys spot rate Y axis inflation IFE graph x axis in the foreign currencys spot rate Yaxis interest rate Forecasts and observed changes differences: Predicting exchange rate movements is challenging because there's often a disparity between forecasted and actual changes, attributed to economic disparities among nations. Differences in national incomes and varying monetary growth rates between countries, along with critical factors like inflation rates, trade balances, unexpected global events such as pandemics or financial crises and changes in government policies.contribute to substantial disparities between predicted and observed changes in exchange rates.
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