Question
This file presents quarterly data from the first quarter of 1962 through the second quarter of 2021 on Real GDP (RGDP), the unemployment rate (UR),
This file presents quarterly data from the first quarter of 1962 through the second quarter of 2021 on Real GDP (RGDP), the unemployment rate (UR), the Consumer Price Index (CPI), and the M1 money supply (M1). The trend variable (TREND) is also included. 1. Suppose we conduct a regression with RGDP as the dependent variable and TREND, UR, CPI and M1 as the explanatory variables. We wish to test this model for heteroscedasticity. Use the White's test and the modified White's test at the 0.01 level to determine whether heteroscedasticity exists. If heteroscedasticity exists, what variables might be causing it based on your regression results? You do not need to try and correct for heteroscedasticity in this problem.
RGDP: | Real GDP in 2012 dollars (millions of dollars) | |||||
UR: | Civilian Unemployment Rate (percent) | |||||
CPI: | Consumer Price Index | |||||
M1: | M1 Money Supply (millions of dollars) | |||||
TREND: | Trend (observation number) | |||||
YEAR | QTR | RGDP | TREND | UR | CPI | M1 |
1962 | 1 | 3192.380 | 1 | 5.100 | 29.043 | 140.533 |
1962 | 2 | 3194.653 | 2 | 5.267 | 29.193 | 141.533 |
1962 | 3 | 3203.759 | 3 | 5.600 | 29.370 | 140.267 |
1962 | 4 | 3275.757 | 4 | 5.133 | 29.397 | 139.900 |
1963 | 1 | 3258.088 | 5 | 5.233 | 29.573 | 139.600 |
1963 | 2 | 3274.029 | 6 | 5.533 | 29.590 | 140.900 |
1963 | 3 | 3232.009 | 7 | 6.267 | 29.780 | 140.833 |
1963 | 4 | 3253.826 | 8 | 6.800 | 29.840 | 141.533 |
1964 | 1 | 3309.059 | 9 | 7.000 | 29.830 | 142.567 |
1964 | 2 | 3372.581 | 10 | 6.767 | 29.947 | 143.400 |
1964 | 3 | 3438.721 | 11 | 6.200 | 29.990 | 144.700 |
1964 | 4 | 3500.054 | 12 | 5.633 | 30.107 | 145.633 |
1965 | 1 | 3531.683 | 13 | 5.533 | 30.220 | 146.600 |
1965 | 2 | 3575.070 | 14 | 5.567 | 30.307 | 146.467 |
1965 | 3 | 3586.827 | 15 | 5.533 | 30.380 | 147.267 |
1965 | 4 | 3625.981 | 16 | 5.767 | 30.477 | 148.800 |
1966 | 1 | 3666.669 | 17 | 5.733 | 30.533 | 150.167 |
1966 | 2 | 3747.278 | 18 | 5.500 | 30.720 | 151.700 |
1966 | 3 | 3771.845 | 19 | 5.567 | 30.803 | 153.167 |
1966 | 4 | 3851.366 | 20 | 5.467 | 30.930 | 154.167 |
1967 | 1 | 3893.296 | 21 | 5.200 | 30.980 | 155.233 |
1967 | 2 | 3954.121 | 22 | 5.000 | 31.050 | 157.767 |
1967 | 3 | 3966.335 | 23 | 4.967 | 31.193 | 159.833 |
1967 | 4 | 4062.311 | 24 | 4.900 | 31.290 | 161.033 |
1968 | 1 | 4113.629 | 25 | 4.667 | 31.490 | 161.967 |
1968 | 2 | 4205.086 | 26 | 4.367 | 31.583 | 163.833 |
1968 | 3 | 4301.973 | 27 | 4.100 | 31.750 | 166.833 |
1968 | 4 | 4406.693 | 28 | 3.867 | 32.047 | 169.733 |
1969 | 1 | 4421.747 | 29 | 3.833 | 32.337 | 171.567 |
1969 | 2 | 4459.195 | 30 | 3.767 | 32.617 | 171.033 |
1969 | 3 | 4495.777 | 31 | 3.700 | 32.883 | 171.533 |
1969 | 4 | 4535.591 | 32 | 3.833 | 32.967 | 173.233 |
1970 | 1 | 4538.370 | 33 | 3.833 | 33.167 | 175.633 |
1970 | 2 | 4581.309 | 34 | 3.800 | 33.500 | 179.500 |
1970 | 3 | 4615.853 | 35 | 3.900 | 33.867 | 182.433 |
1970 | 4 | 4709.993 | 36 | 3.733 | 34.200 | 184.833 |
1971 | 1 | 4788.688 | 37 | 3.567 | 34.533 | 188.000 |
1971 | 2 | 4825.799 | 38 | 3.533 | 35.000 | 191.667 |
1971 | 3 | 4844.779 | 39 | 3.400 | 35.433 | 195.800 |
1971 | 4 | 4920.605 | 40 | 3.400 | 35.867 | 199.333 |
1972 | 1 | 4935.564 | 41 | 3.433 | 36.433 | 200.933 |
1972 | 2 | 4968.164 | 42 | 3.567 | 36.933 | 201.833 |
1972 | 3 | 4943.935 | 43 | 3.567 | 37.500 | 203.467 |
1972 | 4 | 4936.594 | 44 | 4.167 | 38.100 | 205.633 |
1973 | 1 | 4943.600 | 45 | 4.767 | 38.633 | 207.167 |
1973 | 2 | 4989.159 | 46 | 5.167 | 39.033 | 209.900 |
1973 | 3 | 4935.693 | 47 | 5.833 | 39.600 | 213.667 |
1973 | 4 | 5069.746 | 48 | 5.933 | 39.933 | 217.233 |
1974 | 1 | 5097.179 | 49 | 5.900 | 40.300 | 221.833 |
1974 | 2 | 5139.128 | 50 | 6.033 | 40.700 | 225.667 |
1974 | 3 | 5151.245 | 51 | 5.933 | 41.000 | 227.767 |
1974 | 4 | 5245.974 | 52 | 5.767 | 41.333 | 232.233 |
1975 | 1 | 5365.045 | 53 | 5.700 | 41.600 | 236.033 |
1975 | 2 | 5415.712 | 54 | 5.567 | 41.933 | 240.967 |
1975 | 3 | 5506.396 | 55 | 5.367 | 42.367 | 246.867 |
1975 | 4 | 5642.669 | 56 | 4.933 | 43.033 | 251.800 |
1976 | 1 | 5704.098 | 57 | 4.933 | 43.933 | 254.767 |
1976 | 2 | 5674.100 | 58 | 4.800 | 44.800 | 257.700 |
1976 | 3 | 5727.960 | 59 | 4.767 | 45.933 | 260.967 |
1976 | 4 | 5678.713 | 60 | 5.133 | 47.300 | 265.267 |
1977 | 1 | 5692.210 | 61 | 5.200 | 48.567 | 267.767 |
1977 | 2 | 5638.411 | 62 | 5.633 | 49.933 | 270.133 |
1977 | 3 | 5616.526 | 63 | 6.600 | 51.467 | 273.400 |
1977 | 4 | 5548.156 | 64 | 8.267 | 52.567 | 275.100 |
1978 | 1 | 5587.800 | 65 | 8.867 | 53.200 | 279.267 |
1978 | 2 | 5683.444 | 66 | 8.467 | 54.267 | 284.500 |
1978 | 3 | 5759.972 | 67 | 8.300 | 55.267 | 286.433 |
1978 | 4 | 5889.500 | 68 | 7.733 | 55.900 | 290.633 |
1979 | 1 | 5932.711 | 69 | 7.567 | 56.400 | 295.600 |
1979 | 2 | 5965.265 | 70 | 7.733 | 57.300 | 298.600 |
1979 | 3 | 6008.504 | 71 | 7.767 | 58.133 | 303.933 |
1979 | 4 | 6079.494 | 72 | 7.500 | 59.200 | 311.233 |
1980 | 1 | 6197.686 | 73 | 7.133 | 60.233 | 317.333 |
1980 | 2 | 6309.514 | 74 | 6.900 | 61.067 | 322.333 |
1980 | 3 | 6309.652 | 75 | 6.667 | 61.967 | 328.633 |
1980 | 4 | 6329.791 | 76 | 6.333 | 63.033 | 335.567 |
1981 | 1 | 6574.390 | 77 | 6.000 | 64.467 | 343.900 |
1981 | 2 | 6640.497 | 78 | 6.033 | 65.967 | 349.800 |
1981 | 3 | 6729.755 | 79 | 5.900 | 67.500 | 355.333 |
1981 | 4 | 6741.854 | 80 | 5.867 | 69.200 | 360.333 |
1982 | 1 | 6749.063 | 81 | 5.700 | 71.400 | 370.333 |
1982 | 2 | 6799.200 | 82 | 5.867 | 73.700 | 378.433 |
1982 | 3 | 6816.203 | 83 | 5.967 | 76.033 | 381.133 |
1982 | 4 | 6837.641 | 84 | 6.300 | 79.033 | 388.100 |
1983 | 1 | 6696.753 | 85 | 7.333 | 81.700 | 385.900 |
1983 | 2 | 6688.794 | 86 | 7.667 | 83.233 | 399.333 |
1983 | 3 | 6813.535 | 87 | 7.400 | 85.567 | 409.400 |
1983 | 4 | 6947.042 | 88 | 7.433 | 87.933 | 415.033 |
1984 | 1 | 6895.559 | 89 | 7.400 | 89.767 | 425.767 |
1984 | 2 | 6978.135 | 90 | 7.400 | 92.267 | 426.933 |
1984 | 3 | 6902.105 | 91 | 8.233 | 93.767 | 432.133 |
1984 | 4 | 6794.878 | 92 | 8.833 | 94.600 | 442.433 |
1985 | 1 | 6825.876 | 93 | 9.433 | 95.967 | 447.100 |
1985 | 2 | 6799.781 | 94 | 9.900 | 97.633 | 452.100 |
1985 | 3 | 6802.497 | 95 | 10.667 | 97.933 | 470.267 |
1985 | 4 | 6892.144 | 96 | 10.367 | 98.000 | 484.033 |
1986 | 1 | 7048.982 | 97 | 10.133 | 99.133 | 499.067 |
1986 | 2 | 7189.896 | 98 | 9.367 | 100.100 | 510.367 |
1986 | 3 | 7339.893 | 99 | 8.533 | 101.100 | 519.200 |
1986 | 4 | 7483.371 | 100 | 7.867 | 102.533 | 528.000 |
1987 | 1 | 7612.668 | 101 | 7.433 | 103.500 | 537.300 |
1987 | 2 | 7686.059 | 102 | 7.433 | 104.400 | 541.667 |
1987 | 3 | 7749.151 | 103 | 7.300 | 105.300 | 547.600 |
1987 | 4 | 7824.247 | 104 | 7.233 | 106.267 | 562.400 |
1988 | 1 | 7893.136 | 105 | 7.300 | 107.233 | 575.933 |
1988 | 2 | 8013.674 | 106 | 7.200 | 107.900 | 596.200 |
1988 | 3 | 8073.239 | 107 | 7.033 | 109.000 | 613.267 |
1988 | 4 | 8148.603 | 108 | 7.033 | 109.567 | 626.700 |
1989 | 1 | 8185.303 | 109 | 7.167 | 109.033 | 651.200 |
1989 | 2 | 8263.639 | 110 | 6.967 | 109.700 | 678.800 |
1989 | 3 | 8308.021 | 111 | 6.833 | 110.467 | 708.333 |
1989 | 4 | 8369.930 | 112 | 6.600 | 111.800 | 731.567 |
1990 | 1 | 8460.233 | 113 | 6.267 | 113.067 | 744.300 |
1990 | 2 | 8533.635 | 114 | 6.000 | 114.267 | 745.167 |
1990 | 3 | 8680.162 | 115 | 5.833 | 115.333 | 753.200 |
1990 | 4 | 8725.006 | 116 | 5.700 | 116.233 | 758.567 |
1991 | 1 | 8839.641 | 117 | 5.467 | 117.567 | 772.700 |
1991 | 2 | 8891.435 | 118 | 5.467 | 119.000 | 782.800 |
1991 | 3 | 9009.913 | 119 | 5.333 | 120.300 | 784.967 |
1991 | 4 | 9101.508 | 120 | 5.200 | 121.667 | 784.167 |
1992 | 1 | 9170.977 | 121 | 5.233 | 123.633 | 775.900 |
1992 | 2 | 9238.923 | 122 | 5.233 | 124.600 | 779.400 |
1992 | 3 | 9257.128 | 123 | 5.367 | 125.867 | 789.133 |
1992 | 4 | 9358.289 | 124 | 5.300 | 128.033 | 798.333 |
1993 | 1 | 9392.251 | 125 | 5.333 | 129.300 | 806.367 |
1993 | 2 | 9398.499 | 126 | 5.700 | 131.533 | 815.333 |
1993 | 3 | 9312.937 | 127 | 6.133 | 133.767 | 822.233 |
1993 | 4 | 9269.367 | 128 | 6.600 | 134.767 | 832.833 |
1994 | 1 | 9341.642 | 129 | 6.833 | 135.567 | 849.533 |
1994 | 2 | 9388.845 | 130 | 6.867 | 136.600 | 866.033 |
1994 | 3 | 9421.565 | 131 | 7.100 | 137.733 | 887.533 |
1994 | 4 | 9534.346 | 132 | 7.367 | 138.667 | 924.100 |
1995 | 1 | 9637.732 | 133 | 7.600 | 139.733 | 949.567 |
1995 | 2 | 9732.979 | 134 | 7.633 | 140.800 | 975.000 |
1995 | 3 | 9834.510 | 135 | 7.367 | 142.033 | 1014.767 |
1995 | 4 | 9850.973 | 136 | 7.133 | 143.067 | 1034.100 |
1996 | 1 | 9908.347 | 137 | 7.067 | 144.100 | 1062.867 |
1996 | 2 | 9955.641 | 138 | 6.800 | 144.767 | 1094.333 |
1996 | 3 | 10091.049 | 139 | 6.633 | 145.967 | 1122.267 |
1996 | 4 | 10188.954 | 140 | 6.567 | 146.700 | 1136.000 |
1997 | 1 | 10327.019 | 141 | 6.200 | 147.533 | 1143.200 |
1997 | 2 | 10387.382 | 142 | 6.000 | 148.900 | 1151.067 |
1997 | 3 | 10506.372 | 143 | 5.633 | 149.767 | 1150.600 |
1997 | 4 | 10543.644 | 144 | 5.467 | 150.867 | 1148.500 |
1998 | 1 | 10575.100 | 145 | 5.667 | 152.100 | 1146.267 |
1998 | 2 | 10665.060 | 146 | 5.667 | 152.867 | 1144.300 |
1998 | 3 | 10737.478 | 147 | 5.567 | 153.700 | 1132.967 |
1998 | 4 | 10817.896 | 148 | 5.533 | 155.067 | 1121.533 |
1999 | 1 | 10998.322 | 149 | 5.500 | 156.400 | 1118.833 |
1999 | 2 | 11096.976 | 150 | 5.267 | 157.300 | 1103.400 |
1999 | 3 | 11212.205 | 151 | 5.333 | 158.667 | 1083.500 |
1999 | 4 | 11284.587 | 152 | 5.233 | 159.633 | 1077.500 |
2000 | 1 | 11472.137 | 153 | 5.000 | 160.000 | 1064.600 |
2000 | 2 | 11615.636 | 154 | 4.867 | 160.800 | 1069.233 |
2000 | 3 | 11715.393 | 155 | 4.667 | 161.667 | 1069.600 |
2000 | 4 | 11832.486 | 156 | 4.633 | 162.000 | 1076.233 |
2001 | 1 | 11942.032 | 157 | 4.400 | 162.533 | 1077.300 |
2001 | 2 | 12091.614 | 158 | 4.533 | 163.367 | 1076.967 |
2001 | 3 | 12287.000 | 159 | 4.433 | 164.133 | 1091.967 |
2001 | 4 | 12403.293 | 160 | 4.300 | 164.733 | 1097.133 |
2002 | 1 | 12498.694 | 161 | 4.267 | 165.967 | 1101.733 |
2002 | 2 | 12662.385 | 162 | 4.233 | 167.200 | 1098.267 |
2002 | 3 | 12877.593 | 163 | 4.067 | 168.433 | 1112.067 |
2002 | 4 | 12924.179 | 164 | 4.033 | 170.100 | 1112.767 |
2003 | 1 | 13160.842 | 165 | 3.933 | 171.433 | 1107.733 |
2003 | 2 | 13178.419 | 166 | 4.000 | 173.000 | 1101.133 |
2003 | 3 | 13260.506 | 167 | 3.900 | 174.233 | 1093.233 |
2003 | 4 | 13222.690 | 168 | 4.233 | 175.900 | 1102.300 |
2004 | 1 | 13299.984 | 169 | 4.400 | 177.133 | 1120.467 |
2004 | 2 | 13244.784 | 170 | 4.833 | 177.633 | 1164.867 |
2004 | 3 | 13280.859 | 171 | 5.500 | 177.500 | 1173.233 |
2004 | 4 | 13397.002 | 172 | 5.700 | 178.067 | 1191.500 |
2005 | 1 | 13478.152 | 173 | 5.833 | 179.467 | 1189.767 |
2005 | 2 | 13538.072 | 174 | 5.733 | 180.433 | 1194.100 |
2005 | 3 | 13559.032 | 175 | 5.867 | 181.500 | 1211.233 |
2005 | 4 | 13634.253 | 176 | 5.867 | 183.367 | 1235.000 |
2006 | 1 | 13751.543 | 177 | 6.133 | 183.067 | 1266.533 |
2006 | 2 | 13985.073 | 178 | 6.133 | 184.433 | 1293.633 |
2006 | 3 | 14145.645 | 179 | 5.833 | 185.133 | 1301.033 |
2006 | 4 | 14221.147 | 180 | 5.700 | 186.700 | 1318.933 |
2007 | 1 | 14329.523 | 181 | 5.600 | 188.167 | 1336.100 |
2007 | 2 | 14464.984 | 182 | 5.433 | 189.367 | 1352.267 |
2007 | 3 | 14609.876 | 183 | 5.433 | 191.400 | 1370.900 |
2007 | 4 | 14771.602 | 184 | 5.300 | 192.367 | 1370.267 |
2008 | 1 | 14839.782 | 185 | 5.100 | 193.667 | 1367.833 |
2008 | 2 | 14972.054 | 186 | 4.967 | 196.600 | 1374.433 |
2008 | 3 | 15066.597 | 187 | 4.967 | 198.433 | 1375.800 |
2008 | 4 | 15267.026 | 188 | 4.733 | 199.467 | 1381.533 |
2009 | 1 | 15302.705 | 189 | 4.633 | 201.267 | 1380.867 |
2009 | 2 | 15326.368 | 190 | 4.633 | 203.167 | 1368.567 |
2009 | 3 | 15456.928 | 191 | 4.433 | 202.333 | 1369.400 |
2009 | 4 | 15493.328 | 192 | 4.500 | 204.317 | 1368.867 |
2010 | 1 | 15582.085 | 193 | 4.500 | 206.631 | 1375.167 |
2010 | 2 | 15666.738 | 194 | 4.667 | 207.939 | 1372.900 |
2010 | 3 | 15761.967 | 195 | 4.800 | 210.490 | 1375.100 |
2010 | 4 | 15671.383 | 196 | 5.000 | 212.770 | 1384.500 |
2011 | 1 | 15752.308 | 197 | 5.333 | 215.538 | 1395.833 |
2011 | 2 | 15667.032 | 198 | 6.000 | 218.861 | 1428.133 |
2011 | 3 | 15328.027 | 199 | 6.867 | 213.849 | 1530.300 |
2011 | 4 | 15155.940 | 200 | 8.267 | 212.378 | 1579.300 |
2012 | 1 | 15134.117 | 201 | 9.300 | 213.507 | 1628.533 |
2012 | 2 | 15189.222 | 202 | 9.633 | 215.344 | 1660.000 |
2012 | 3 | 15356.058 | 203 | 9.933 | 217.030 | 1684.533 |
2012 | 4 | 15415.145 | 204 | 9.833 | 217.374 | 1698.333 |
2013 | 1 | 15557.277 | 205 | 9.633 | 217.297 | 1712.967 |
2013 | 2 | 15671.967 | 206 | 9.467 | 217.934 | 1744.200 |
2013 | 3 | 15750.625 | 207 | 9.500 | 219.699 | 1815.067 |
2013 | 4 | 15712.754 | 208 | 9.033 | 222.044 | 1875.033 |
2014 | 1 | 15825.096 | 209 | 9.067 | 224.568 | 1931.200 |
2014 | 2 | 15820.700 | 210 | 9.000 | 226.033 | 2079.033 |
2014 | 3 | 16004.107 | 211 | 8.633 | 227.047 | 2156.600 |
2014 | 4 | 16129.418 | 212 | 8.267 | 228.326 | 2215.733 |
2015 | 1 | 16198.807 | 213 | 8.200 | 228.808 | 2260.367 |
2015 | 2 | 16220.667 | 214 | 8.033 | 229.841 | 2351.000 |
2015 | 3 | 16239.138 | 215 | 7.800 | 231.369 | 2435.233 |
2015 | 4 | 16382.964 | 216 | 7.733 | 232.299 | 2476.633 |
2016 | 1 | 16403.180 | 217 | 7.533 | 232.045 | 2525.733 |
2016 | 2 | 16531.685 | 218 | 7.233 | 233.300 | 2559.767 |
2016 | 3 | 16663.649 | 219 | 6.933 | 234.163 | 2636.767 |
2016 | 4 | 16621.696 | 220 | 6.667 | 235.608 | 2727.167 |
2017 | 1 | 16830.111 | 221 | 6.233 | 236.839 | 2801.367 |
2017 | 2 | 17033.572 | 222 | 6.100 | 237.459 | 2834.133 |
2017 | 3 | 17113.945 | 223 | 5.700 | 236.920 | 2897.533 |
2017 | 4 | 17254.744 | 224 | 5.567 | 235.355 | 2984.600 |
2018 | 1 | 17397.029 | 225 | 5.400 | 236.912 | 3003.133 |
2018 | 2 | 17438.802 | 226 | 5.100 | 237.816 | 3035.233 |
2018 | 3 | 17456.225 | 227 | 5.000 | 237.888 | 3063.967 |
2018 | 4 | 17523.374 | 228 | 4.933 | 237.848 | 3131.067 |
2019 | 1 | 17622.486 | 229 | 4.867 | 239.452 | 3231.567 |
2019 | 2 | 17706.705 | 230 | 4.933 | 240.548 | 3296.700 |
2019 | 3 | 17784.185 | 231 | 4.733 | 242.177 | 3342.467 |
2019 | 4 | 17863.023 | 232 | 4.667 | 243.949 | 3411.500 |
2020 | 1 | 17995.150 | 233 | 4.333 | 244.010 | 3483.433 |
2020 | 2 | 18120.843 | 234 | 4.300 | 245.297 | 3552.767 |
2020 | 3 | 18223.758 | 235 | 4.100 | 247.301 | 3598.967 |
2020 | 4 | 18323.963 | 236 | 4.100 | 249.442 | 3641.900 |
2021 | 1 | 18511.576 | 237 | 3.900 | 250.468 | 3657.567 |
2021 | 2 | 19465.195 | 238 | 5.100 | 273.138 | 3770.667 |
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