Three options:

1)take a loan. If works out, worth $120M three years from now, if not, 0. If she takes the loan, the probability of succeeding is 40%, but has to pay $2 million back regardless.

2)Accept VC for 9% of the company's valuation. 80% success rate, and keeping 91% of the company.

3)sell for $75 now, which will be worth $80 in three years.

What is the EMV? Why not take the optimal decision?