Question
Time Series data on Fiji's Consumer Price Index (CPI) between 2017 - 2020 sourced from the Fiji Bureau of Statistics (FBoS). We are going to
Time Series data on Fiji's Consumer Price Index (CPI) between 2017 - 2020 sourced from the Fiji Bureau of Statistics (FBoS). We are going to use the sheet called "ECN803 Data" which have been transposed from CPI tables produced by FBoS.
Using this data, please answer the following questions:
1. Using the ratio to moving average (MA), calculate the seasonally adjusted indices for each quarter beginning Q1, 2017
2. Establish a regression trend line in the form of Y = a + bX + ? by estimating the values for 'a' and 'b'.
3. Using the trend line in (2), calculate a seasonally adjusted trend estimate for Q2, 2020
4. What would be your forecasted Consumer Price Index for all goods and services in Q1, Q2, Q3 and Q4 in 2021?
Note : please prepare graphs where possible
Answer all question or at least 2 questions in detail
12:14 A Of . 4G ,ill .ill 51% ECN803 Assessment - Time Series Data - Saved . . . G B C Food and Non- Alcoholic Clothing and Housing, Water, Furnishings, Health Transp alcoholic Beverages, Footwear Elec., Gas and Hold Equip. & Division All Beverages Tobacco and Other Fuels Routine Hhld Maint Item Narcotics 50.0 14.1 Weight 1000.0 347.1 105.7 21.7 126.8 2015 1.4 4.8 9.8 2.1 4. 0.4 2.8 Annual -0.5 41 5.9 Average 2016 27.0 1.2 -5.0 3.8 -2.1 31.8 0.2 2.0 0.8 -04 2017 3.3 -1.3 2018 4.1 3.4 19.4 0.6 2.1 -0.2 40 5.5 1.0 -0.1 -04 2019 41.4 1.3 -0.6 1.4 -0.4 2017 January 0.8 7.1 42.9 1.3 -0.6 2.8 -0.3 February 5.5 4.3 March 5.6 3.1 48.4 2.0 -0.6 3.4 0.1 -0.4 4.5 2.2 0.5 4.1 44.2 April -3.5 25 -4.8 28.9 -0.6 4.5 0.4 0.4 May -6.0 25.8 -0.3 4.5 0.1 -1.3 June 2.0 30.5 -0.3 2.2 0.4 -1.3 July 2.0 -6.2 0.5 -1.2 August 2.0 -5.2 27.8 -0.8 1.9 September -4.2 23.6 -0.1 1.9 0.4 -1.2 2.1 - 0.7 October 2.6 -3.7 27.5 -0.9 2.2 -0.3 25.4 0.9 -0.5 -0.6 November 25 -3.0 26.1 0.7 2.2 0.9 December -2.8 2.9 2.0 2018 January 1.6 -6.0 23.5 0.4 0.7 February 2.3 -2.0 21.4 0.5 2.9 2.9 0.0 2.6 0.2 16.4 0.2 March -0.9 April 4.0 6.1 17.2 0.2 0.1 5.1 6.4 23.3 0.5 0.1 -0.7 May 4.6 5.1 22.3 0.6 0.1 -1.3 June 0.4 July 47 4.1 21.6 2.3 -2.4 4.3 3.3 20.3 1.4 2.3 0.2 -2.3 August -2.3 4.9 0.9 2.3 0.2 September 4.6 18.6 16.1 1.5 2.6 1.0 -2.3 October 5.2 7.8 November 5.1 7.2 16.6 0.2 $1 13.2 02 20 -2.2 December 5.1 7.9 17.6 0.7 0.4 -3.1 2010 January 5.1 10.4 16.1 0.1 0.4 -1.1 February March 4.0 7.7 14.4 0.4 -2.0 April 2.1 2.0 13.1 0.5 -1.2 -1.2 May 2.1 4.7 8.0 0.7 -0.1 June 2.8 7.3 7.8 0.9 2.1 O.S 0.8 July 3.2 0. 8 August 1.2 5.6 0.8 04 3.3 0.0 0.9 September October 1.2 -2.3 0.9 -0.9 0.5 November -0.3 2.9 -2.6 4.3 0.1 December 2.8 0.1 2020 January -1.9 -1.4 0.0 February -3.0 -6.1 0.6 Marc -2.8 .5.6 0.8 April -1.3 1.0 0.3 May 17 10 O=0 O12:15 P AO . 49 .ill .ill 51% ECN803 Assessment - Time Series Data - Saved . . . K M N O P Q R ATIONAL PERIOD IN PREVIOUS YEAR Education Restaurants Miscella- Health Transport Commun Recreation neous ication & Culture & Hotels Goods & Services 30.5 138.7 44.2 16.1 75.3 29.8 14.1 -1.7 1.5 4.1 0.1 0.6 2.8 -3.7 -3.9 -1.6 3.5 4.1 -1.5 8.2 -0.4 0.7 2.9 -0.6 -0.4 1.8 -0.3 1.6 0.0 -1.3 2.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.1 -13.8 0.2 4.8 02 04 -0.3 9.0 -0.4 0.4 -0.2 2.5 -0.8 27 -0.4 -0.3 0.4 -0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 -0.3 0.0 2.8 -0.6 0.0 -0.5 0.5 3.4 -0.3 0.0 2.8 -02 0.4 3.2 -0.3 -0.2 0.0 2.8 3.3 -0.3 -0.4 0.0 2.2 -0.3 -1.3 0.0 -0.4 -0.3 -2.1 3.3 1.8 3.3 -0.5 1.8 -0.3 -1.0 0.0 -0.8 -0.3 -1.1 0.0 2.9 1.9 2.9 -0.9 2.0 -0.3 -0.6 0.0 -0.3 2.9 0.9 -0.6 -0.2 0.0 2.0 -0.2 04 30 -1.0 0.6 1.8 1.5 0.0 -0. 0.0 0.5 1.6 0.2 0.0 2.4 -0.4 1.4 0.1 0.0 O. 1.4 0.1 0.1 0.0 2.3 0.5 0.1 0.2 0.0 2.3 0.0 0.0 2.3 -0.5 0.7 0.7 0.1 0.2 2.2 0.7 0.2 0.0 -03 0.1 0.0 2.4 0. 1 0.4 0.0 1.1 2.4 0.1 0.3 0.0 1.1 0.1 2.4 0.1 0.4 0.0 1.1 0.3 1.1 0.3 -2.3 3.3 0.1 0.4 88 8 1.1 0.5 3.3 0.1 0.3 o.s 2.2 3.4 0.1 0.2 0.7 0.4 0.0 0.2 0.6 -3.1 0.S 0.1 0.3 0.5 -15.2 -0.6 -1.1 0.9 0.3 0.9 -15.2 0.4 -0.1 -0.3 -15.2 0.4 0.0 -15.2 0.2 0.2 0.0 -1.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.2 -15.2 0.0 0.3 0.2 0.3 15.0 0.0 5.2 0.3 0.8 O.S 0.3 1.1 O.8 0.4 15. 0.0 5.2 0.9 0.0 1.8 0.4 15. 5.2 15.0 0.1 0.5 0.0 -15.0 0.1 0.0 3.7 05 15.0 0.0 5.2 1.9 4.5 0.1 1.1 .15.0 4.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 1.9 4.9 0.0 4.5 0.6 4.1 0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.8 0.8 3.4 0.1 0.0 5.4 0.3 0.4 69 O 898 828 8 9 8 8 O <Step by Step Solution
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