To answer Question 1:

Use the forecasting module that you opened in the POM-QM for Windows software to solve the Southwestern University case study at the end of Chapter 4 of the Heizer and Render (2014) textbook. For this case study, you are required to build a forecasting model. Assume a trend analysis (regression over time) forecasting model and build a model for each of the five games (five models in total) by using the forecasting module of the POM software. Answer the three Discussion questions given in the case study. Explain your reasoning or show your calculations.

CASE STUDIESSouthwestern University: (B)*

*This integrated case study runs throughout the text. Other issues facing Southwestern's football stadium include (A) managing the stadium project (Chapter 3); (C) quality of facilities (Chapter 6); (D) break-even analysis of food services (Supplement 7 web site); (E) locating the new stadium (Chapter 8 web site); (F) inventory planning of football programs (Chapter 12 web site); and (G) scheduling of campus security officers/staff for game days (Chapter 13 Web site).

Southwestern University (SWU), a large state college in Stephenville, Texas, enrolls close to 20,000 students. The school is a dominant force in the small city, with more students during fall and spring than permanent residents.

Always a football powerhouse, SWU is usually in the top 20 in college football rankings. Since the legendary Phil Flamm was hired as its head coach in 2006 (in hopes of reaching the elusive number 1 ranking), attendance at the five Saturday home games each year increased. Prior to Flamm's arrival, attendance generally averaged 25,000 to 29,000 per game. Season ticket sales bumped up by 10,000 just with the announcement of the new coach's arrival. Stephenville and SWU were ready to move to the big time!

The immediate issue facing SWU, however, was not NCAA ranking. It was capacity. The existing SWU stadium, built in 1953, has seating for 54,000 fans. The following table indicates attendance at each game for the past 6 years.

One of Flamm's demands upon joining SWU had been a stadium expansion, or possibly even a new stadium. With attendance increasing, SWU administrators began to face the issue head-on. Flamm had wanted dormitories solely for his athletes in the stadium as an additional feature of any expansion.

SWU's president, Dr. Joel Wisner, decided it was time for his vice president of development to forecast when the existing stadium would "max out." The expansion was, in his mind, a given. But Wisner needed to know how long he could wait. He also sought a revenue projection, assuming an average ticket price of $50 in 2013 and a 5% increase each year in future prices.

Discussion Questions

1. Develop a forecasting model, justifying its selection over other techniques, and project attendance through 2014.

2. What revenues are to be expected in 2013 and 2014?

3. Discuss the school's options.

Southwestern University Football Game Attendance, 2007-2012

2007

2008

2009

GAME

ATTENDEES

OPPONENT

ATTENDEES

OPPONENT

ATTENDEES

OPPONENT

1

34,200

Rice

36,100

Miami

35,900

USC

2a

39,800

Texas

40,200

Nebraska

46,500

Texas Tech

3

38,200

Duke

39,100

Ohio State

43,100

Alaska

4b

26,900

Arkansas

25,300

Nevada

27,900

Arizona

5

35,100

TCU

36,200

Boise State

39,200

Baylor

aHomecoming games.

bDuring the fourth week of each season, Stephenville hosted a hugely popular southwestern crafts festival. This event brought tens of thousands of tourists to the town, especially on weekends, and had an obvious negative impact on game attendance.

2010

2011

2012

GAME

ATTENDEES

OPPONENT

ATTENDEES

OPPONENT

ATTENDEES

OPPONENT

1

41,900

Arkansas

42,500

Indiana

46,900

LSU

2^a

46,100

Missouri

48,200

North Texas

50,100

Texas

3

43,900

Florida

44,200

Texas A&M

45,900

South Florida

4^b

30,100

Central Florida

33,900

Southern

36,300

Montana

5

40,500

LSU

47,800

Oklahoma

49,900

Arizona State

aHomecoming games.

bDuring the fourth week of each season, Stephenville hosted a hugely popular southwestern crafts festival. This event brought tens of thousands of tourists to the town, especially on weekends, and had an obvious negative impact on game attendance.