Tobacco use is an especially pernicious public health problem throughout the world. The World Health Organization (WHO) considers tobacco use to be "one of the biggest public health threats the world has ever faced, killing more than 8 million people per year around the world." Although most of these deaths are the result of direct tobacco use, nearly one-in-four tobacco-related deaths are the result of non-smokers being exposed to second-hand smoke. Tobacco use is especially widespread in emerging and newly-emergent economies. The WHO estimates that more than 80 percent of the tobacco users worldwide live in low- and -middle-income countries. China alone accounts for roughly 44 percent of the world's total tobacco consumption. Further, the Chinese Ministry of Health estimates that 57 percent of individuals aged 15 and over currently use tobacco (mostly smoking cigarettes). It has been observed that in many parts of China, especially the more traditional parts, cigarettes are considered a valuable gift, especially on special days such as the Chinese Spring Festival and other holidays. In its "Healthy China 2030" blueprint that established public health as an important precondition for future economic and social development, the Chinese government set the ambitious target of reducing the smoking rate among Chinese citizens over the age of 15 to 20 percent by 2030, down from the current rate of nearly 28 percent.

Suppose you are a policy analyst working for the Ministry of Health in formulating its programs to reduce tobacco use in China. Your supervisor has tasked you with comparing the potential impacts of two policies that are being considered: a cigarette tax and a pictorial information campaign. In preparation for your evaluation, your supervisor has provided you with the following information on these two policy interventions.

Cigarette tax:Currently, the total tax on cigarettes in China equates to only about 40 percent of the retail price. This is well below the tax rates observed in other nearby countries. For example, in Singapore, the tax rate is 69 percent, while in South Korea, the tax rate is 60 percent. Even in Hong Kong SAR, the tax rate is higher than in mainland China. Based on the estimated price elasticity of demand of -0.5, analysts estimate that if the cigarette tax were increased to 51 percent of the retail price (roughly an RMB 1 increase in the tax per pack of cigarettes), the number of smokers would decrease by 13.7 million and an estimated 3.4 million lives could be saved. At the same time, there would be a substantial increase in government tax revenues, perhaps as much as RMB 65 billion. There would be some downsides, as the tax and resulting reduction in cigarette demand would result in a reduction in total cigarette production, which in turn would result in losses for the cigarette manufacturing industry and would likely result in roughly 6,000 lost jobs.

Pictorial information campaign:Many countries around the world require cigarette manufacturers to print some type of warning label on cigarette packages that provide information to consumers about the health risks of cigarette smoking. The current warning label on Chinese cigarettes simply states "smoking is harmful to your health"displayed relatively inconspicuously on the side of the pack. As a result of this rather generic label, roughly 90 percent of Chinese consumers (including both smokers and non-smokers) are aware that cigarette smoking is harmful to one's health, but the level of knowledge about the specific smoking-related diseases, such as cardiovascular disease, stroke, etc., is quite low. In general, evidence suggests that warning labels areeffective in increasing knowledge about risks associated with smoking and can influence future decisions about smoking. But a more recent consensus - including based on studies in China - has emerged that suggests that large and pictorial health warning labels (covering 60 percent or more of the surface area of the packaging, often with graphic images of individuals with various health afflictions) are especially effective in motivating smokers to quit, discouraging nonsmokers from starting, and keep ex-smokers from starting again. In fact, in a study among Chinese consumers,approximately one-third of the smokers reported they would quit smoking as a result of graphic warning labels with detailed health risk and cessation information. Although some in the tobacco industry have warned that the use of large pictures may have a "boomerang" effect and actually lead to an increase in smoking, there is no evidence of such an effect. Indeed, research suggests that smokers want to see more health information on cigarette packages: data from the International Tobacco Corporation (ITC) surveys of smokers in 10 countries demonstrates that the percentage of smokers who want to see more information on cigarette packages is greater than the percentage of smokers who want to see less information.

Your task is to identify a set ofthree criteriaand to evaluate these two policy alternatives along these dimensions. You should select criteria by which you can evaluate both of the policy alternatives so that they can be compared and contrasted against each other and against the status quo relatively easily, including a matrix that summarizes this comparison. Since it is assumed that both policies would have a very high likelihood of reducing tobacco use, evaluating these policies along the effectiveness criteria isnotpermissible, though evaluating cost-effectiveness would be permissible if applicable. As is often the case in the real world, you may not have all the information you need to make very precise evaluations. In such cases, you may have to rely on your expert opinion. In making your evaluations, assume that the total population of China is 1.4 billion as of 2021, with 84 percent of these being aged 15 and over.