Topic: The Black Swan Phenomenon

The "black swan phenomenon" is a term used to describe a significant and unexpected event. The term "black swan" refers to the shock people in the Old World felt when they found black swans in Australia, upending the notion that all swans were white. The assumption that current conditions are unalterable, or that they simply represent the way things are, risks being undermined by "black swan." A single observation or event can invalidate years of prescribed thought and conventional wisdom.

For your response,

1. Discuss the black swan phenomenon as it relates to the usual aspects of rapid technological adaptation and change?
2. How can you prepare yourself, others, and the organization to anticipate, cope with, and be proactive regarding technological changes or other potential surprises, or black swans?
3. What potentially disruptive technologies do you see on the horizon for your organization or industry (or for one you chose)? What methods might futurologists use to help avoid being surprised by disruptive technologies? Address both the black swan phenomenon and disruptive technology theory in your posting?