Total points 125. Submit through D2L in Word/Excel format, single or multiple files. Must show all Excel work, answer all parts of the question, and write necessary explanations to earn full points. You have to use Excel to solve this numerical problem (project).

The following table gives monthly data for four years in million tons of consumption of ice cream in a country. Plot the series and comment on the visible seasonality and trend. Estimate the centered moving averages for this monthly series. Plot CMA and comment. Next, estimate the S,I component which only includes seasonal and irregular movements of the series. Then find the seasonal indexes for the twelve months removing the irregular component. Find the de-seasonalized levels for the series. Plot De-seasonalized Y and comment. Then estimate the trend values for the four sample years and the 12 months of the year 2019 (beyond the sample years) using linear regression. Finally, make the forecast for the 12 months of 2015 using the Ratio-to-Moving Average method to capture the Trend and Seasonal patterns, using Excel. Plot the forecasted values for the 60 periods including 12 months of the year 2019. Plot the errors for in-sample periods and calculate RMSE. Comment on the error plot with respect to the existence of pattern or lack of visible pattern.

Month/Year	2015	2016	2017	2018
Jan	800	860	1110	1290
Feb	810	870	1120	1330
Mar	840	900	1160	1360
Apr	900	1050	1230	1470
May	1000	1170	1340	1620
Jun	1100	1300	1450	1780
Jul	1160	1380	1530	1870
Aug	1100	1310	1450	1770
Sep	1050	1250	1390	1720
Oct	1010	1200	1350	1635
Nov	850	1050	1220	1400
Dec	830	1020	1170	1370

(Hint: First, you have to type the data in column form in Excel)