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Total probability STOP . The rule of total probability: Pr(A) = Pr(A/B) x Pr(B) + Pr(A/-B) x Pr(-B Graph P(AnB ) P(An TB ) A

Total probability STOP . The rule of total probability: Pr(A) = Pr(A/B) x Pr(B) + Pr(A/-B) x Pr(-B Graph P(AnB ) P(An TB ) A B 4 P.(D/A ) D 415 Pr(A) A Pr (70/ A ) .D 1/5 ( 4. Go ) Cancer A and B P(DIB ) IS D Pr (B) B What is your ( total ) prob of dying? 2/3 Pr ( D ) = Pr ( D / A ) Pr ( A ) + Pr ( D / B ) Pr (B) P (7D/ B) "/5 x 1/3 + 1/5 x 2 - 2/5

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