TourneSol Canada, Ltd. is a producer of high quality sunflower oil. The company buys raw sunflower seeds directly from large agricultural companies, and refines the seeds into sunflower oil that it sells in the wholesale market. As a by-product, the company also produces sunflower mash (a paste made from the remains of crushed sunflower seeds) that it sells into the market as base product for animal feed.

The company has a maximum input capacity of 150 short tons of raw sunflower seeds every day (or 54,750 short tons per year). Of course the company cannot run at full capacity every day as it is required to shut down or reduce capacity for maintenance periods every year, and it experiences the occasional mechanical problem. The facility is expected to run at 90% capacity over the year (or on average 150 x 90% = 135 short tons per day).

• TourneSol is planning to purchase its supply of raw sunflower seeds from three primary growers, Supplier A, Supplier B, and Supplier C. Purchase prices will not set until the orders are actually placed so TourneSol will have to forecast purchase prices for the raw material and sales prices for the refined sunflower oil and mash. The contract is written such that TourneSol is only required to commit to 70% of total capacity up front. Any amounts over that can be purchased only as required for the same price. Historical prices for the last 15 years are in the table below (note that year 15 is the most current year).

Historical Price Data

Marketing Year

Seed

Average Price Index

$/short ton

Oil

Average Price Index

$/short ton

Mash

Average Price Index

$/short ton

1

127.7

317.8

63

2

192.4

465

87

3

242

662.2

105

4

242

668.2

111

5

274

791.3

124

6

242

732

108

7

290

951

134

8

347.2

1123

153

9

436

1297.3

193

10

422.8

1312

187

11

466

1416

193

12

582

1664

247

13

508

1317.4

242

14

428

1182.4

197

15

434

1334.4

210

For all three suppliers, it is expected that the average yield of oil from the seeds is 30%.There is no net loss of material, so the yield of mash from the same supply is expected to be 70%.

Because the oleic acid and iodine content varies across the three suppliers, so does the price.It is expected that the cost of supply from the suppliers will be a percentage of the market average price of seeds.

Supplier

Cost as % of Average Market Price of Seed

A

85%

B

100%

C

90%

The company faces an additional variable production cost of $10/short ton and an estimated fixed cost of $1,750,000 over the upcoming production period.

The company is asking you to provide a recommendation on the amount of raw material it should purchase from each supplier to minimize its cost of feedstock.

Management is also looking for an analysis on the profitability of the company in the next production cycle

Be sure to address all relevant points, discuss any assumptions you are making, justify any modeling choices you have made (for example, the choice of time series forecast model), and highlight the following items in your report:

• a forecast of the next production period's average price index for raw sunflower seeds, sunflower oil, and sunflower mash,
• a recommendation for the optimal purchasing strategy from the various suppliers,
• a cost-volume-profit analysis using for the recommended purchase strategy and the forecasted sunflower oil and mash sales price,
• a discussion of the risks and uncertainties that are faced by the company, and
• an analysis and opinion on the profitability of the company in the next production period (accounting for the expected profit or loss and the inherent risks/uncertainties