TourneSol Canada, Ltd. is a producer of high-quality sunflower oil. The company buys raw sunflower seeds directly from large agricultural companies and refines them into sunflower oil sold in the wholesale market. As a by-product, the company also produces sunflower mash (a paste made from the remains of crushed sunflower seeds) that it sells into the market as a base product for animal feed.

The company has a maximum input capacity of 150 short tons of raw sunflower seeds every day (or 54,750 short tons per year). Of course, the company cannot run at full capacity every day. It must shut down or reduce the capacity for maintenance periods every year, and it experiences the occasional mechanical problem. The facility is expected to run at 90% capacity over the year (or on average 150 x 90% = 135 short tons per day).

TourneSol is planning to purchase its supply of raw sunflower seeds from three primary growers, Supplier A, Supplier B, and Supplier C. Purchase prices will not be set until the orders are actually placed, so TourneSol will have to forecast purchase prices for the raw material and sales prices for the refined sunflower oil and mash. The contract is written such that TourneSol is only required to commit to 70% of the total capacity upfront. Any amounts over that can be purchased only as required for the same price. Historical prices for the last 15 years are in the table below (note that year 15 is the most current year).

Historical Price Data
Marketing Year	Seed Average Price Index $/short ton	Oil Average Price Index $/short ton	Mash Average Price Index $/short ton
1	127.7	317.8	63
2	192.4	465	87
3	242	662.2	105
4	242	668.2	111
5	274	791.3	124
6	242	732	108
7	290	951	134
8	347.2	1123	153
9	436	1297.3	193
10	422.8	1312	187
11	466	1416	193
12	582	1664	247
13	508	1317.4	242
14	428	1182.4	197
15	434	1334.4	210

Sunflower oil contains several fatty acids, some of which are desirable in food products and others not. One desirable fatty acid is oleic acid. TourneSol produces high oleic oil for the wholesale market and requires that the oleic acid content be a minimum of 77%. Sunflower oil also contains trace amounts of iodine. The market requires that that iodine content be a minimum of 0.78% and a maximum of 0.88%

The oleic acid and iodine content for the sunflower seeds from the three suppliers is given in the table below.

Supplier	Oleic Acid	Iodine
A	72%	0.95%
B	82%	0.85%
C	65%	0.72%

For all three suppliers, it is expected that the average yield of oil from the seeds is 30%. There is no net loss of material, so the yield of mash from the same supply is expected to be 70%.

Because the oleic acid and iodine content varies across the three suppliers, so does the price. It is expected that the cost of supply from the suppliers will be a percentage of the market average price of seeds.

Supplier	Cost as % of Average Market Price of Seed
A	85%
B	100%
C	90%

The company faces an additional variable production cost of $10/short ton and an estimated fixed cost of $1,750,000 over the upcoming production period.

The company is asking you to provide a recommendation on the amount of raw material it should purchase from each supplier to minimize its cost of feedstock.

Management is also looking for an analysis of the profitability of the company in the next production cycle.

1. Use standard measures of the error to decide between a three-period moving average model or an exponential smoothing model (with = 0.2).

2. Dont use the moving average for one time series and the exponential smoothing model for another time series.

Recall that the cost-volume-price analysis requires you to provide:

• an algebraic statement of the revenue function and the cost function,
• a detailed break-even chart that includes lines for the revenue and the total cost, fixed cost, and variable cost (a total of four lines), and
• a calculation break-even point expressed in several short tons and percent of capacity.

Prepare a written management report that includes, at a minimum, the following sections:

• Purpose of the Report
• Description of the Problem
• Methodology (which would include the model formulation)
• Findings or Results
• Recommendations or Conclusions

Please answer these questions very clearly don't send me only the table and half-solved answer.