Transcendent Technologies is deciding between developing complicated, thought-activated software, or simple, voice-activated software. The voice-activated software would cost $50 million to develop and has a 60% chance of being successfully launched and generating revenue of $100 million. The thought-activated software would be a bonanza if successful, generating $1 billion in revenue. But it is so complicated, it is projected to cost would be $400 million. How likely would success have to be for Transcendent Technologies to opt for the thought-activated software?