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32. Adam Smith FRM is asked by his manager to forecast the sales of an auto components supplier by assessing the expansion plans of its
32. Adam Smith FRM is asked by his manager to forecast the sales of an auto components supplier by assessing the expansion plans of its largest customer, a car manufacturer. Smith estimates the probability that the customer will increase its orders for auto components to 35%. If the customer does increase the orders, Smith estimates the probability that the car manufacturer will start a new development at 60%. If the customer does not increase its order from this supplier, smith estimates only a 25% chance that it will start the new development. Later, smith finds out that the car manufacturer will start the new development. In light of this new information, what is the new updated probability that the car manufacturer will increase its order from this supplier
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