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5. (20 points) Company A is considering a Project Y with the following profile. Suppose there are three periods: Period 0, Period 1, and Period
5. (20 points) Company A is considering a Project Y with the following profile. Suppose there are three periods: Period 0, Period 1, and Period 2. (1) The investment required for the project is 1000 and is irreversible, i.e., once invested, the cost is "sunk" and cannot be recovered. This requirement is the same regardless of the period the investment is made. (ii) If the investment is made now, the project will produce a one-time return in the following period with uncertainty: with a probability of 80%, the return will be 1500; with a probability of 20%, the return will be 200. (iii) In Period 1, the uncertainty as described in (ii) will be resolved: it will be known for sure whether the investment will have a return of 1500 or 200. (iv) If investment is made on the project in Period 1, any return from the project will come in Period 2. Please evaluate whether Company A should invest in Period 0 or wait to invest in Period 1. Assuming a discount factor, D=0.9. 5. (20 points) Company A is considering a Project Y with the following profile. Suppose there are three periods: Period 0, Period 1, and Period 2. (1) The investment required for the project is 1000 and is irreversible, i.e., once invested, the cost is "sunk" and cannot be recovered. This requirement is the same regardless of the period the investment is made. (ii) If the investment is made now, the project will produce a one-time return in the following period with uncertainty: with a probability of 80%, the return will be 1500; with a probability of 20%, the return will be 200. (iii) In Period 1, the uncertainty as described in (ii) will be resolved: it will be known for sure whether the investment will have a return of 1500 or 200. (iv) If investment is made on the project in Period 1, any return from the project will come in Period 2. Please evaluate whether Company A should invest in Period 0 or wait to invest in Period 1. Assuming a discount factor, D=0.9
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