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6. Khalifah plc is considering a two-year project that has the following probability distribution of returns: Year 1 Year 2 Return Probability Return Probability 16,000

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6. Khalifah plc is considering a two-year project that has the following probability distribution of returns: Year 1 Year 2 Return Probability Return Probability 16,000 0.2 8,000 0.4 20,000 0.5 16,000 0.6 24,000 0.3 The events in each year are independent of other years (that is, there are no conditional probabilities). An outlay of 30,000 is payable at Time 0 and the other cash flows are receivable at the year ends. The risk-- adjusted discount rate is 12 per cent. Calculate The events in each year are independent of other years (that is, there are no conditional probabilities). An outlay of 30,000 is payable at Time 0 and the other cash flows are receivable at the year ends. The risk- adjusted discount rate is 12 per cent. Calculate a). The expected NPV: b). The standard deviation of NPV: c). The probability of the NPV being less than zero assuming a normal distribution of return - (bell shaped and symmetrical about the mean). AAMUP 75.000

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